With Ty’Son Williams going over his rushing total last week, the SNF team here at Bet The Prop moves to 2-1 on the young season, and tonight our team has two more SNF Props for Packers 49ers.
Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay redeemed themselves in the second half last week. After trailing the woeful Lions 17-14 at the half, the Packers scored 21 unanswered to win and cover. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 2-0, winning both games with relative ease.
Tonight, the Packers are surprising home underdogs, a situation in which they’ve done well. Green Bay is 4-1 against the spread as a home underdog since Rodgers became the starting quarterback.
But we’re focusing on the prop market for this game. Our two plays tonight are leans, wherein you should bet no more than 0.5 units (or 0.5% of your total betting bankroll). However, our team has been excellent through two weeks of the NFL season, and if you want more +EV prop plays for Week 3, consider joining us as a full-time subscriber.
MORE PROPS: See our two favorite plays for Sunday’s main slate here.
So, let’s dive into our favorite SNF Props for Packers 49ers.
Aaron Jones Over 13.5 Rush Attempts (-115 DraftKings)
After a pitiful Week 1 performance, Aaron Jones bounced back in Week 2.
However, Week 1’s performance had less to do with Jones and more to do with the Packers’ poor offensive output. Jones managed just five carries, his lowest attempt total since 2018’s Week 14. However, the Packers ran just 15 rushing plays in Week 1 out of 52 total plays (28.8%), given they were trailing the whole game.
Green Bay rushed 43.7% of the time in 2020, so I’m not expecting another game plan that lopsided.
That was the case in Week 2, where the Packers rushed on 31 of their 58 total plays (53.4%). After compiling just 33% of the Rush Attempt Marketshare in Week 1, Jones got 55% of those attempts in Week 2. He took those 17 carries for 67 yards and a touchdown.
Last week marked the 11th time out of the past 18 games that Jones has compiled at least 14 carries, a 61% hit rate that gives us implied odds of -157 to the over.
Aaron Jones rush attempts per game since the start of 2020. Image credit: Props.cash
The 49ers are known for their stout defensive front, but it hasn’t been the best through two weeks.
- San Francisco ranks just 16th in Rush Defense DVOA (-16.1%)
- 13th in Defensive Adjusted Line Yards (3.96)
- Detroit ran 24 times for 116 yards against the 49ers (4.8 YPC)
- Philadelphia ran 29 times for 151 yards (5.2 YPC)
They’ve been great at limiting yards after carry, allowing just 0.2 YAC/ATT through two weeks. But we’re not betting on Jones’ rushing yards, we’re looking for him to hit over 13.5 attempts.
And the projection market thinks he will. Right now, we’re seeing a projection spread from 13.5 to 14.8. That gives us good value on the over at the -115 number DraftKings is offering us.
Jimmy Garoppolo Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-120 DraftKings)
This line confuses me.
Jimmy Garoppolo had just 25 attempts in Week 1 and then 30 in Week 2, and with the 49ers being 3.5-point favorites, Vegas is expecting them to win. That would mean the 49ers are leading more than they are trailing, and Kyle Shanahan can lean on his deadly ground attack.
Shanahan always leans on his ground attack, anyway. Through Week 2, the 49ers have passed on just 46.3% of their play calls, good for third lowest in the NFL. As such, Garrapolo has managed over 31.5 attempts just twice in his last 10 starts, averaging just 24.4 attempts per game during that stretch.
Jimmy Garrapolo pass attempts per game over his past 10 games.
The Packers’ defense has been bad through two games, ranking 25th in both Pass Defense DVOA and Rush Defense DVOA. But more importantly, their opponents have compiled 58 rush attempts to just 57 pass attempts through two games this season.
Therefore, I love Shanahan to limit Jimmy Garoppolo’s pass attempts in Week 3. The projection market for Garoppolo’s attempts is around 30.5, but I’d be surprised if he hits 30 on Sunday Night.
I’ll happily play the under 31.5 number DraftKings is offering at -120.
Make sure to bet our SNF Props for Packers 49ers. And after both cash, consider joining us as a subscriber for the remainder of the season.