A thrilling Week 12 NFL slate has arrived and we’ve found phenomenal angles on two NFL Props for Week 12.
I went 1-0 with Bet The Prop on Thanksgiving day thanks to a big afternoon from Tony Pollard, and I’m looking to keep the momentum going with two more winners on Sunday.
My Bet The Prop article plays are 14-8 so far this NFL season, and we’ll try to stay hot down the stretch run.
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With close games on the horizon, it’s time for a rushing frenzy in Week 12. Let’s dive into the picks.
NFL Props for Week 12 (11/28)
Dalvin Cook Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-114 @ FanDuel)
Dalvin Cook is cementing his place among the NFL’s elite running backs for the third consecutive year. Cook ranks second among all NFL players in rushing yards over the last three seasons, trailing only the king himself, Derrick Henry.
Minnesota’s offensive superstar is averaging 95.2 rushing yards per game since 2019, and his rushing dominance is largely thanks to the massive volume he is able to handle.
Volume
Cook is undoubtedly the centerpiece of Minnesota’s offense. In Cook’s last 20 games (going back to last season), he has at least 15 carries in all but one. The one outlier was a game that he sat most of due to an injury against Cleveland, as shown below.
The two-time pro bowler has averaged an astronomical 22.4 carries per game during this stretch. His 14 games of 20-plus carries is rivaled by only Derrick Henry. This volume isn’t just empty calories for the lead back either. Cook’s hyper-efficient 4.9 yards per carry over his last 20 games is remarkable on this type of volume. The unbelievably talented runner is the only non-Henry player to average at least 100 YPG over this stretch.
Dalvin has reached the over on this rushing prop in five straight contests entering Week 12, averaging 101.6 YPG over his last five. He has at least 78 yards in 15 of his last 20 games, with the injury-induced 34-yard game vs. Cleveland coming as Cook’s sole game below 60 yards in this sample.
Matchup
The 49ers’ rushing defense is not a unit to be scared of whatsoever. The Niners rank as the 12th-worst rush defense by expected points in 2021. Additionally, San Francisco is giving up the 13th-most rushing yards to opponents. These numbers put the Niners at a below-average level as a rushing defense, and they shouldn’t get in Cook’s way.
San Francisco is just a couple of weeks removed from allowing the following rushing lines in three straight weeks:
- Jonathan Taylor:18 carries, 107 yards
- Khalil Herbert: 23 carries, 72 yards
- James Conner: 21 carries, 96 yards
This game should remain tight with Cook and the Vikes on the road this week. Expect Minnesota to feed their star runner in an attempt to control the clock and keep San Francisco’s offense on the sidelines as much as possible.
Darrell Henderson Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-115 @ DraftKings & Caesar’s)
After Cam Akers went down with a season-ending torn Achilles back in July, Darrell Henderson was instantly expected to fill Akers’ shoes as the lead running back for the Rams. Los Angeles then traded for Sony Michel just before the season kicked off, which offered some uncertainty to Henderson’s role. But Henderson has held off the former Patriot quite nicely in 2021.
Henderson is coming out of the Rams’ bye week having played 67.6% of the team’s offensive snaps, placing him fifth among all running backs in snap share this season. He’s averaging exactly 14 carries per game this season, but LA’s abysmal last two weeks have brought this number down from where it previously was.
The Rams fell behind early in both the Titans and 49ers games in their final two matchups before their bye week. The deficits prevented Henderson from ever getting involved like we’re accustomed to seeing from him this year. Before these two contests, Henderson posted 15.7 carries per game and had at least 13 in all seven games, as shown here:
The games highlighted in orange show how much more Henderson was involved in the Rams’ offensive attack when the team wasn’t getting blown out on a weekly basis. Los Angeles is entering as 2-point favorites against Green Bay this Sunday. The high probability for a close game works in our favor on this prop.
Henderson has hit this over in six of nine games. And, a neutral game script can only help him climb back to the 15-17 carries he saw on a weekly basis before the Rams’ struggles.
Conclusion
Dalvin Cook is one of the NFL’s premier talents at the running back position. He’s a key component to Minnesota’s offensive success and we should expect him to have the ball in his hands a ton against a subpar 49ers front. Look for Cook to break the 100-yard mark for the fourth time this season.
Darrell Henderson’s emergence has been riveting this season. With the Rams coming into Green Bay as road favorites, he should be plenty involved in the offense. Hendo and the Rams are in a solid spot to bounce back after their bye week.
Have fun playing these NFL props for Week 11, and join us for the home stretch of the NFL season!
