Welcome to the Lamar Jackson show, as we cap off a red hot week of picks with our top Ravens Raiders MNF props.
Our article plays are 5-1 so far on week 1, including a sweep of the main slate, while our subscriber picks went an obscene 16-4 (80%) for +11.8 units.
💰16-4 week on subscriber picks! Got to love that lone late Sony Michel carry to cash 2 🙏🙏🙏
Miss you already, Week 1⬇️ pic.twitter.com/OQZaOIUqFF
— Bet the Prop (@bettheprop) September 13, 2021
Consider tonight’s prop pick an “official” 1 unit play. Join us here if you want to get our full weekly slates of NFL props delivered to your device.
Ravens Raiders MNF Props (9/13)
Lamar Jackson OVER 27.5 Pass Attempts (-105 @ DraftKings)
There are a couple of signs pointing to Jackson being busier in the passing game than we’re used to.
Their running back room has been decimated by the losses of JK Dobbins, Justice Hill, and now Gus Edwards. Those guys accounted for 290 rushing attempts last year, so while newly minted lead back Ty’Son Williams will get plenty of reps, the Ravens will also have to lean more on Lamar’s arm out of pure necessity.
That’s something they’ve been planning on doing anyway, though. That linked piece goes into detail on how Baltimore plans on better taking advantage of Jackson’s unique skill set by putting him under center and passing more, which should force defenses into more difficult decisions.
Offensive coordinator Greg Roman said “the cat’s out of the bag now” when asked if Jackson would move under center more in 2021. “That is definitely going to be a part of what we do this year — the percentage of which I cannot state at this point.”
It all adds up to a little more Lamar in the passing game, a notion with plenty of support from projections, which all come in at 29 attempts or more, including our friends at Run the Sims, whose 10,000 simulations of this game give Jackson a median result of 32.
Save 10% on a Run the Sims subscription here
The Raiders’ rancid pass defense should make a great test case for the Ravens revamped offense.
Despite the fact that they would have been playing with a lead for huge chunks of last year, QBs facing the Raiders still got off an impressive 36.2 pass attempts per game, good for ninth-most in the league.
According to our prop database, the average Over/Under on Pass Attempts for QBs facing the Raiders last year was 36.3. So while Lamar’s line is understandably lower at 27.5, it probably shouldn’t be off by so much compared to the average QB facing Las Vegas, especially paired with the rest of the context we’ve discussed.
I’d be more concerned if the total in this game was down in the mid-40s, but at a current O/U of 50.5 total points, we can feel good about the potential for a fast-paced game environment.
It’s a great matchup, and the books don’t seem up to speed on the revamped Ravens offense. We like this to -125 and would also play it as high as 28.5 attempts.