Fresh off a 2-1 article last night on a massive 11-game NBA slate, we’re back with two more of our best NBA props for Thursday’s docket.
Tonight, we’re targeting the New Orleans Pelicans and the Phoenix Suns with both of our NBA props. They have a high game-total of 233.5 with a spread of just four, giving us the kind of tight, high-scoring game we look for when considering Overs.
Brandon Ingram is back from injury and showed no signs of rust Tuesday night against the Blazers. His teammate J.J. Redick has been scorching from the field lately and is in another good spot tonight.
Ricky Rubio is now a game-time decision and his availability impacts this game and the usage rates for guys like Devin Booker. We are forced to play a wait-and-see game before we make a move on the Suns side.
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- Total : 77-45 (63.1%)
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Best NBA Props for 11/21
New Orleans Pelicans Forward Brandon Ingram
Over 23.5 Points (-120)
The Suns have had a hard time stopping opposing Power Forwards as of late, especially athletic bigs who can shoot and attack the basket. The last three athletic Forwards to play the Suns, Anthony Davis, Jabari Parker and Jayson Tatum, have all hit the targeted 23.5 points.
This game has an Over / Under of 233.5. The Suns play at the ninth-fastest pace in the NBA, and we’ve seen them struggle defensively in their last five, dropping from 7th to 16th defensively during that span.
Ingram is the main scoring threat for the Pelicans:
- He’s led the team in scoring in seven of nine games that he’s played (minus the game against OKC where he only played 13 minutes due to injury)
- In the two games he didn’t lead the team in scoring, he was second, both times by a single point
Ingram is 10th in the NBA in scoring, averaging 25.3 PPG. He’s also sporting a very nice 28.7 usage rate, higher than Damian Lillard’s and Karl-Anthony Towns’.
Ingram has hit the targeted 23.5 in three of his last four games, missing the mark one once by a few points. We hit the Tatum over in this exact spot last week, and all the numbers point towards Ingram hitting it again.
New Orleans Pelicans Guard J.J. Redick
Over 16 Points (-114)
Redick has averaged 21.8 PPG over his last five contests and is locked into minutes, averaging 33.6 during that span. He is in another great spot again tonight against the Suns, a team Redick has a history of torching:
|
Date |
Points |
|
12-04-2017 |
25 |
|
12-31-2017 |
22 |
|
11-19-2018 |
17 |
|
1-02-2019 |
27 |
He has reached the targeted number in his four most recent matchups with Phoenix and has reached easily in three of those attempts.
Redick is also averaging 14 shot attempts per game over his last five.
Lonzo Ball returns from injury tonight; however, that helps Redick even more as Ball is a distributor and looks to set up his shooters like Redick. When Ball is in the lineup, Redick is averaging 6.9 points per 30 minutes more than his season average.
With the pace of this game, and Redick’s history against the Suns, we want to look for simple ways to get exposure to this game and Redick gives us this opportunity.
