Bet the Prop
Image default

2 SNF Props for Broncos Chiefs: Can Teddy Bridgewater Conquer KC?

A few weeks ago, this game would have offered more intrigue — the Broncos were on the up-and-up while the Chiefs were in total free-fall.

Since then, Chiefs have won four straight behind an improved defense, while the Broncos have dropped to last place in the AFC West.

As such, the Chiefs are laying almost double digits on Sunday night. But our team is focused on the prop market, and we’ve identified two SNF Props for Broncos Chiefs that provide value. We’ll start with a look at Teddy Bridgewater’s passing line before breaking down a correlated play on Courtland Sutton’s receiving line.

MORE PROPS: See our two favorite plays for Sunday’s main slate here.

Join us here to get full weekly slates of NFL props delivered to your device, including BTP’s NBA props, which are hitting 62%. 

Let’s dive into our favorite props for this week’s edition of Sunday Night Football.

SNF Props for Broncos Chiefs

Teddy Bridgewater Under 247.5 Pass Yards (-110 @ Bet365)

Teddy Bridgewater has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL, currently ranking second in completion percentage over expected + EPA per play composite.

2021 efficiency stats for NFL quarterbacks. Image credit: rbsdm

However, just because he’s been efficient doesn’t mean he’s compiled the counting stats. Bridgewater’s hit this line in just five of his 12 starts this season but in only one of his last six. During that time, Bridgewater’s compiled:

  • 187 pass yards vs. Cleveland
  • 213 pass yards vs. Washington
  • 249 pass yards vs. Dallas
  • 226 pass yards vs. Philadelphia
  • 129 pass yards vs. Chargers

For you math nerds, that’s an average of just 199 pass yards per game.

On props, he’s gone under his closing line 63% of the time this year, while the Chiefs are holding opposing QBs under their passing line at a 55% rate.

I mentioned the Chiefs’ defense has improved, and that’s particularly true in the passing game. After recording a PFF coverage grade above 60 in just one of their first seven games, the KC has accomplished that feat in every game of their four-game win streak. That includes recording a PFF coverage grade above 70 in three of those.

The Broncos are also +9.5 underdogs here, and Bet the Prop’s historical research has shown that QBs who are big dogs have gone under their passing line 60.9% of the time.

The projection market has Bridgewater closer to 237.5 pass yards in this matchup, giving us plenty of value on the under 247.5 number DraftKings is offering.

Cortland Sutton Under 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110 @ B365)

Jerry Jeudy is clearly the most talented receiver on the Denver catching corps. But when he was injured — between weeks 2 and 7 this season — Cortland Sutton took over. Sutton’s season-long target market share has hovered around 19%, but it jumped to 26% during the six weeks Jeudy was out.

But, with Jeudy back in, Sutton’s target share has dropped precipitously. Since Jeudy got healthy, Sutton has recorded just:

  • 16% target marketshare in Week 9
  • 12% target marketshare in Week 10
  • 9% target marketshare in Week 12
  • 13% target marketshare in Week 12

However, the market is apparently still pricing Sutton expecting his pre-Week 9 productions. Sutton hasn’t hit this number in four straight weeks.

Sutton receiving yards per game this season. Image credit:

Plus, this line has even more value considering how low our team is on Bridgewater. The projection market has Sutton recording closer to 43 receiving yards on Sunday night, meaning there’s still some value at the current line.

Related posts