- Tyler Herro props are the featured item as we dive into his rebound total of Over/Under 5.5
- He and the Miami Heat head into Game 2 of the NBA Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers — tip-off at 9:00 ET
- The Lakers are 9-point favorites in a game with a 216.5-point total
Herro is a hot commodity going into tonight’s Game 2 of the NBA Finals, and while most people are focusing on his points and three-point shooting, I found another avenue I like more.
I like his rebound total tonight, set at 5.5 tonight, and I’m about to tell you why it’s my favorite of the Tyler Herro props tonight. Bet the Prop has won 11 straight NBA props, including five-straight from yours truly after hitting my Game 1 prop.
Editor’s note: We’ve already posted several NFL player props for Week 4 with plenty more to come — we’re hitting 64% on the season and you can join us here for weekly, winning slates.
Heat Guard Tyler Herro
Over 5.5 Rebounds (-110 DraftKings, or “At Least” 6, Prop Builder -114)
Herro has been huge off the bench for the Heat all postseason, and he’s been a walking bucket and then some for the Heat.
I can understand why most are on his point total of over 18.5 (+100) and three-pointers of 2.5 tonight (+125), Herro’s scored double-digits in 23 straight games, including all 16 playoff appearances for the Heat. Those are definitely worth some throwaway money, as there’s a 50/50 chance he hits those totals.
I’m more interested in what Miami will do on the boards tonight without Bam Adebayo (10.9 RPG) and Goran Dragic (4.0 RPG). That leaves 15.9 rebounds on the bench, and Herro is averaging 5.4 per game coming into Game 2 over his first career 16 playoff games. So we only need one more rebound?
Herro grabbed five or more rebounds in 9-of-16 total playoff games already. He’s undoubtedly going to play at least 35 minutes in Game 2, and that’s an excellent number for the rookie guard. When he plays 35 or more minutes in the postseason, Herro has averaged 6.6 boards in five contests.
- The Lakers are allowing 6.84 rebounds per game to point guards, the second-most in the league
- The Lakers are allowing 6.03 rebounds per game to shooting guards, the 10th-fewest in the league
- Herro has recorded five or more reobunds in 7-of-11 Eastern Conference Semifinals and Finals games
- Herro has recorded six or more rebounds in 5-of-11 Eastern Conference Semifinals and Finals games
He recorded six or more rebounds in 11 of 16 playoff games (54.5%) and had five in two others — a 72.6% chance he grabs five or more rebounds if he plays 35 minutes.
He’s averaging 33.1 minutes in the postseason, an improvement from his 27.4 in the regular-season. In the ECF, he played 34.7 minutes per game, and in Game 1, only 30.
One could argue that with Game 1 turning into a blowout, Erik Spoelstra was saving Herro for Game 2 — especially since he only played 18 minutes in the first half compared to 12 in the second. Herro recorded all four of his rebounds in the first half when the game was still semi-competitive.
Conclusion
Herro will be a primary playmaker alongside Jimmy Butler and Kendrick Nunn.
I’m expecting him to have another solid all-around game and based on his success when he plays a larger amount of minutes. Herro’s rebound total is a safer bet to me considering the loss of Adebayo and Dragic.
