The NBA is back with an 11-game slate, and we have plenty of NBA props to choose from.
Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 26.1 PPG this year and is priced down tonight going against a Utah Jazz team that he’s had success against. Devontae’ Graham is one of our favorites to target, as he can quickly light up a scoreboard and gets a fantastic matchup tonight.
We’ll round out the article with analysis on Jonas Valanciunas and Trae Young.
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Minnesota T’Wolves Center Karl-Anthony Towns
Over 23.5 Points (-114)
KAT has had another great start to the season, averaging a career-high 26.1 PPG.
What’s most impressive is his shooting efficiency has skyrocketed. Last year KAT’s true shooting efficiency number was .572. This year he is averaging a career-high .612.
That is a huge jump for a Center who’s also shooting more than four three-pointers more per game than any other season.
KAT is taking advantage of the current NBA that allows big-men to preserve their bodies and hang out around the three-point line shooting uncontested jumpers.
He gets a home matchup against a Utah Jazz team he’s faced twice this year already, hitting this point target once. However, he’s had plenty of success against Rudy Gobert in the past
|
Date |
Points |
|
11-20-19 |
14 |
|
11-18-19 |
29 |
|
3-14-19 |
26 |
|
1-27-19 |
22 |
|
1-25-19 |
33 |
|
10-31-18 |
28 |
Towns has hit the targeted 23.5 in four of his last five matchups averaging 25.3 PPG during that span.
The matchup with the Jazz looks tough on paper, so the oddsmakers have priced KAT down accordingly, so this is a number we should take advantage of.
Charlotte Hornets Guard Devontae’ Graham
Over 31 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)
Graham has exploded onto the NBA scene. He’s finally getting an opportunity to showcase his skills and is posting career highs across the board.
Graham’s seen his role in the Hornets offense consistently grow as the season progresses. He began the season on the bench as the seventh and eighth man, then became the sixth man.
Now he’s not only starting but is 21st in the NBA in Usage Rate over the last five games.
He’s played the Nets twice this year, once as a starter and once off the bench.
- In his last game as a starter, he put up 40 PRA with a 34.2 Usage Rate
- In the first game (off the bench), he put up 26 PRA with a 26.51 Usage Rate
These numbers show us how Graham has improved throughout the season and also how his role in this Hornets offense has expanded.
Graham played last night on the first leg of a back to back, but the last he was in that spot, he played 29 minutes and put up 24 Points, 4 Rebounds and 5 Assists against the Milwaukee Bucks.
He’s locked into minutes, even if the blow-out threat is a concern. The Nets are also allowing opposing Point Guards to average a league-high 31.9 PPG over the last two weeks.
Graham is in a perfect spot against the Nets and is priced down from last night.
Memphis Grizzlies Center Jonas Valanciunas
Over 9.5 Rebounds (-114)
J-Val gets a phenomenal matchup against the Phoenix Suns and their total inability to rebound. We’ve previously highlighted how bad the Suns are at rebounding and why they are such a good team to target.
Valanciunas is averaging 9.8 RPG this year and has hit the targeted 9.5 in five of his last six games.
In his last six matchups with the Suns, he’s hit the targeted 9.5 in four. The matchup, combined with his more defined role in the offense of late, makes this a solid prop for tonight.
Atlanta Hawks Guard Trae Young
Under 41 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)
Young is in a difficult spot against the Chicago Bulls on the road. The Bulls are the No. 1-ranked team defensively in the league at defending Point Guards.
Young and the Hawks went to overtime last night against the Miami Heat on the road and are now forced to travel to Chicago to play tonight.
Young played the Bulls once already this year and really struggled, scoring 9 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists in 29 minutes. In their four games last season, Young scored more than 18 points just once.
In five career games against the Bulls, he’s hit the targeted 41 PRA just one time.
Given the matchup, and the fact that Young is priced up based upon his season average, we’re going to take the Under tonight.
