In a surprising turn of events, Geno Smith will be under center this Sunday Night for the Seahawks, as Seattle travels to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. After careful inspection of the player prop market for this game, our team has found two SNF props for Seahawks Steelers.
These two plays are considered leans, however, meaning you shouldn’t be risking more than 0.5 units per play (or 0.5% of your total betting bankroll).
However, if you’re looking for more player prop action for this weekend, consider joining us as a full-time subscriber.
Let’s dive into our favorite leans for Sunday night’s action.
Najee Harris Over 18.5 Rush Attempts (-114 @ FanDuel)
While this line is slightly high, there’s a great chance Najee gets there.
Last week, Najee Harris compiled 23 total carries against Denver, a solid run defense in the top half of the NFL in Rush Success Rate, Rush EPA per play allowed, and PFF’s rush defense grades.
Meanwhile, Seattle has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game to opponents. Through the Seahawks’ first five games, opponents have averaged 23.3 rush attempts per game against them, including:
- 27 from Indianapolis in Week 1
- 18 from Tennessee in Week 2
- 18 from Minnesota in Week 3
- 28 from San Francisco in Week 4
- 25 from Los Angeles in Week 5
Meanwhile, Harris has accounted for a whopping 80% of Pittsburgh’s Rush Attempt Marketshare. Plus, Najee has compiled over 90% of Pittsburgh’s rush attempts twice this season — Week 3 against Cincinnati and Week 4 against Green Bay.
So, if Pittsburgh calls run as much as every other team has, Harris is going to have a lot of rushing opportunities on Sunday Night.
Projections have Najee going above 19 rush attempts in this matchup, and our team is willing to make a play on him at this price.
Geno Smith Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-115 @ FanDuel)
Smith played just a half against the Rams last week, yet he compiled 23 rushing yards. He has a great chance to crush this number in this matchup.
Smith struggled under pressure last week, going just 2-for-8 with an interception while under pressure. Well, the Steelers get pressure with four rushers as much as anyone in the league. Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Steelers blitz at the sixth-lowest rate in the league but have the sixth-highest pressure rate.
As such, Smith is sure to have to get creative on Sunday Night.
Smith hit this number on just three attempts last week, while the Steelers have already allowed:
- Four rush attempts to Derek Carr
- Five rush attempts to Joe Burrow
- Nine rush attempts to Josh Allen (for 44 yards)
Projections have Geno compiling over 20 rushing yards this week, giving us plenty of value on the 18.5 number being offered.