The Week 6 NFL slate is smaller than the previous five, but we’re bringing you two captivating NFL props for Week 6.
After a Thursday Night game featuring the Buccaneers and Eagles that saw Bet The Prop go 1-1, I’m delighted to release two surefire plays for this weekend.
I am 8-2 with Bet The Prop this NFL season after going 2-0 in this space last week.
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As a reminder: These two plays are considered leans, meaning you should play these bets at no more than 0.5 units (or 0.5% of your total betting bankroll).
It’s time to take a look at two players that could go on a receiving rampage in Week 6. Let’s jump into the picks.
NFL Props for Week 6 (10/17)
Ricky Seals-Jones Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ DraftKings)
Ricky Seals-Jones has become an every-down player for the Washington Football Team since first-string tight end Logan Thomas was sidelined with a hamstring injury. Seals-Jones has played 144 of a possible 145 snaps since Thomas went down, logging 99% of the snaps in last week’s loss to New Orleans and catching 5 balls for 41 yards.
Thomas played at least 90% of Washington’s offensive snaps in 13 straight games going back to last season, and it’s becoming obvious that his replacement will be doing much of the same. RSJ is the only tight end to be targeted in Thomas’ absence. The former wide receiver should retain control of the bulk of Washington’s targets over the middle.
This is a lucrative role in the offense, as shown by Washington TE stats in total over the last two seasons:
- 2021 – 4.0 receptions, 39.2 yards per game
- 2020 – 4.7 receptions, 43.0 yards per game
Quarterback Taylor Heinicke will continue looking for him over the middle and Seals-Jones will hardly be leaving the field on Sunday. The fifth-year pro’s high usage should continue in a terrific matchup against the Chiefs in Week 6.
There may not be a friendlier matchup for opposing NFL tight ends than Kansas City. The Chiefs are giving up a massive 93.2 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season, by far the most in the league thus far. This comes after a 2020 season that saw Kansas City let up the fifth-most yards to the position.
They’ve allowed at least 55 yards to five different tight ends through five games. And this 34.5 line is an easy one to reach against KC, as the Chiefs have allowed a tight end to post 35+ yards in 13 of their last 15 games going back to last season.
Kansas City is allowing the single most points and fourth-most passing yards per game in 2021. The reigning AFC Champs’ defense is pathetic, especially against tight ends.
Michael Pittman Jr. Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-114 @ FanDuel)
Michael Pittman Jr. is enjoying quite the breakout in his sophomore NFL season, emerging as the clear-cut number one receiving option for the Colts over the last month. He ranks 12th in the NFL in receiving yards over the last four weeks, averaging 84.8 per game. He also has at least six receptions in four straight, ranking seventh in the league in receptions during this stretch.
The former second-round pick out of USC has at least 59 receiving yards in four straight games, as shown here:
Pittman’s role is as large as almost any other wideout in the NFL with a 91% snap share this season. This impressive rate is the eighth-highest among all WR’s in 2021. He has also been on the field for at least 85% of Indianapolis’ snaps in every game this season, remaining ultra-consistent weekly.
We don’t even need Carson Wentz to throw a ton in this contest for this prop to hit the over. Pittman possesses a 25.3% target share and has hauled in 67.4% of the passes thrown his way this season. He likely only needs 6-7 targets to put up 60 yards against the Texans and he’s averaged 8.6 targets per game through five weeks.
Teams haven’t needed to throw much against Houston this year, but they’ve succeeded when they have. Houston ranks outside the top 20 in yards per pass attempt and completion percentage allowed. In other words, this pass defense is nothing to be afraid of.
Outside receivers have had their way with the Texans secondary, as five have already cleared the 70-yard mark this year:
- DJ Chark – 86 Rec Yds (Week 1)
- Marvin Jones – 77 Rec Yds (Week 1)
- DJ Moore, 126 Rec Yds (Week 3)
- Stefon Diggs, 114 Rec Yds (Week 4)
- Emmanuel Sanders, 74 Rec Yds (Week 4)
The 6’4″ Pittman has been Wentz’s go-to on the outside recently, and Houston has been getting burned mostly by number one options. They’ve allowed 75+ receiving yards in four of five games this season, and Pittman is a strong candidate to make it five of six.
Seals-Jones is an underrated talent at the tight end position, and Taylor Heinicke will be looking his way often against the Chiefs. RSJ should see at least 5-6 targets against the league’s worst TE defense and has a ton of upside on a banged-up Washington offense.
Pittman Jr. is becoming a great NFL receiver, and the lowly Texans shouldn’t get in the way of him hitting the over on his receiving prop for a fifth straight week.
Enjoy playing these props for Week 6, and join us for the remainder of the NFL season!