We’ve returned with another NBA article for tonight’s slate. And, we have our sights set on a rising Eastern Conference big man for our best NBA Props for Tuesday night’s games.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are on their final night of a four-game road trip. They’re facing the Charlotte Hornets — tipoff is at 7:00 ET. And, you guessed it: the Cavs are resting a star player tonight because this is life in the NBA after the all-star break.
Donovan Mitchell is on the shelf due to “injury management,” while starting center Jarrett Allen is sidelined due to an eye injury. This has led to some huge lines for Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, which means sportsbooks may be a bit too high on Mobley’s stock this evening.
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NBA Props for Tuesday (3/14)
Evan Mobley Under 33.5 Points + Rebounds (-110 @ DraftKings)
However you slice it, this line feels too high for Evan Mobley. Donovan Mitchell‘s absence may cause you to believe there’s value in taking the over on Mobley’s props. Jarrett Allen‘s absence may cause that same belief. Cleveland’s matchup against the Charlotte Hornets could even lead to some increased confidence in the USC product.
But, everyone needs to settle down. Yes, that includes all of the pro-Evan Mobley voices in my head. He’s been fantastic in year 2 but is he already a guy that’s going to go out and get you 23 points and 12 rebounds on any given night? My answer is a no, regardless of who’s missing for Cleveland tonight.
No Mitchell, No Jarrett Allen – Does it Matter?
Cleveland’s short-handed rotation is certainly the reason we’re getting such huge lines on the 21-year-old’s props. But, I see a ton of value in countering this overreaction.
It was early in the season, but Mobley only posted 4 points and 13 rebounds in his lone game without Mitchell and Allen this season. I’m not expecting him to take only 4 shots tonight. But, he’s only taken more than 15 field goal attempts in 8 of his 68 games this season. And, although his usage rate increases without Mitchell, it doesn’t go through the roof.
He’s only reached the over on this prop in 2 of his 11 games without Mitchell this season. And, his 28.2 P+R average in these games is still a 16% decrease from the line itself.
Meanwhile, he’s only averaging 26.6 P+R in 8 games without Allen, remaining under this line in all 8 contests.
It’s best to look at Mobley as the 2A option in Cleveland’s offense tonight, with Caris LeVert functioning as the 2B. Although Mobe is in a larger role tonight, that shouldn’t warrant this prop to be increased from the 25.5-26.5 range, where it usually sits.
There is value in Evan Mobley’s unders tonight, as his props are far too juiced up heading into a Tuesday night bout with the Hornets. And, Charlotte’s defense has ranked in the top 10 against opposing centers and in the top 10 overall in seven games since LaMelo Ball‘s injury.
This matchup is no cakewalk. And, Mobley just finished with 27 P+R against the Hornets on Sunday. That was despite seeing 39 minutes of action, which he likely won’t see tonight. There’s a lot to love here.
Have fun playing our best NBA Props for Tuesday and Join us for the rest of the NBA season!