We’re back with more free NBA props for you on this ten-game NBA slate.
It’s loaded with teams playing injured, short-handed, or on the second of back-to-back games, which can affect lines. There are a lot of question marks and volatile spots tonight, so this is a slate I would tread lightly on.
There are some players in some fantastic and more predictable spots that we’ll focus on tonight, however:
- Devontae’ Graham of the Charlotte Hornets is in an excellent spot against a short-handed and fast-paced Warriors team.
- Taurean Prince will look to get revenge on his former Atlanta Hawks team who’s defense is getting torched right now.
- Aaron Gordon is playing more minutes and has been much more involved offensively for the Magic the last few games.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in a really tough spot tonight and he enters this game struggling in three of his last four contests.
And you can find our best Cowboys Bears props for Thursday Night Football here.
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- Free NBA Props Article Picks : 33-20 (62.2%)
- Slack Chat Subscriber Picks: 134-76 (63.8%)
- Total : 167-96 (63.5%)
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Free NBA Props for Wednesday (12/04)
Charlotte Hornets Guard Devontae’ Graham
Over 29 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)
Graham is playing well and finds himself in a smashing spot tonight.
He’s hit the targeted 29 in three of his last four contests. He is also locked into minutes, playing at least 37 minutes in three of his last four games. The Hornets leading scorer looks to stay hot against a depleted Warriors team.
The Warriors have given up an average of 29.5 PPG over the last two weeks and are the 28th ranked NBA team this season.
Here are what opposing Guards have done to the Warriors in the last seven games:
|
Name |
Points | Rebounds | Assists |
Total |
|
Trae Young |
24 |
1 | 7 |
32 |
|
Evan Fournier |
32 |
4 | 0 |
36 |
|
Goran Dragic |
20 |
5 | 4 |
29 |
|
Zach Lavine |
36 |
5 | 5 |
46 |
|
Chris Paul |
20 |
7 | 5 |
32 |
|
Luka Doncic |
35 |
10 | 11 |
56 |
|
Ja Morant |
20 |
6 | 2 |
28 |
The Warriors have given up at least 28 PRA to opposing Guards in all of their last seven, and Graham and his combo guard skills are in a fantastic spot tonight.
Brooklyn Nets Forward Taurean Prince
Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)
Revenge game narrative? Maybe you don’t believe in that, but there is some evidence out there to support it.
Either way, Prince is in a great spot against his former team, and he plays a position that I like to target when going against the Hawks.
Over the last two weeks, the Hawks have given up 28.4 PPG and 12.6 RPG to opposing Power Forwards. Prince has been playing well without Kyrie Irving and Caris LaVert and has stepped up to become the second scoring option on the team.
Prince has only hit the targeted 22.5 twice in his last five games; however he’s only missed the target twice by one point each time. Typically that would be concerning, but it isn’t uncommon for an NBA player to go up and down during the season, and his matchup is too good to pass up.
Prince is also averaging 32 minutes per game over his last five contests, and the implied total of 229 is second highest on the board tonight.
Prince, locked into minutes, in a great matchup with a high game total, is a spot we’ll lock into every time.
Orlando Magic Forward Aaron Gordon
Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)
Gordon is in a great spot tonight against a Phoenix Suns team whose defense is one we love to attack, especially the opposing Power Forward spot. We’ve highlighted how much the Suns struggle to guard PFs before, and we are 4-0 when playing Power Forwards against the Suns this year.
Gordon played 32 minutes last night and scored 31 PRA. He’s played at least 30 minutes in three-straight games, and the Magic are so short-handed that Gordon will be locked into his minutes tonight.
Oklahoma City Thunder Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)
SGA has really struggled his last four, missing the targeted 25.5 PRA in three of those.
He hasn’t shot the ball well during that stretch either, hitting less than 42% in four straight and progressively getting worse:
- 5-17 – 29%
- 4-13 – 30%
- 4-10 – 40%
- 5-12 – 41%
The Indiana Pacers are currently the eighth-best defensive team in the league, so this is not a get-right spot for Alexander. In their matchup earlier this year, SGA played 28 minutes and scored 11 points and 6 rebounds. In two matchups last year, SGA averaged 28 minutes and 19 PRA in two matchups against the Pacers.
SGA is 0-3 in 3 contests when trying to hit the targeted 25.5 against the Pacers and the matchup tonight is equally as difficult as his previous contests.
