Coming off a Thanksgiving gut-punch against the Bills, Dallas travels to Chicago as 3-point favorites, and we're breaking down a couple of our best Cowboys Bears props for Thursday Night Football
The Windy City probably won't live up to its name, but the cold, wet weather could play a small factor. At the very least, such conditions won't hurt our first prop play on Amari Cooper, and we'll also break down Tarik Cohen's matchup against the Cowboys zone-heavy defensive looks.
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Cowboys WR Amari Cooper
Under 72.5 Receiving Yards (-114 @ Prop Builder)
Thursday Update: We posted this play Wednesday, and 24 hours later it's already moved to U69.5 -143 (CLV baby!). At 5 Dimes, the line is down to 66.5 yards. If you have access to domestic US books, you can still get Cooper U72.5 -118 at MGM. If you don't, I believe the best offshore option is currently the -115 on U66.5 yards at 5 Dimes, although I would size down my bet.
One of our favorite tools for building arguments in these pieces is the RotoViz Splits App. It allows you to look at how a player's output is affected by a dozen different variables -- things like home/away splits, point spread splits, and vs opponent splits.
It's a fun tool, but it's easy to overreact to the small sample sizes that are often involved. When it comes to Cooper, however, there's a growing body of evidence that there might actually be some serious signal to his wildly polarized home/away splits.
It's been a theme throughout his career, and this year it's more dramatic than ever.
- Cooper is on pace for a 2,021-yard season in Jerry World games and 568 yards in away games
- He's gone over this 72.5-yard number just once -- 80 yards against the Giants' horrid secondary
- Other than that, he's failed to hit even 50 yards on the road once
It would be one thing if he was commanding similar volume in away games, but his targets are cut nearly in half.
Granted, it's not as bad as it looks since Cooper's missed chunks of time in some of those road games with his growing list of leg injuries.
But this has been a thing for him going back over a larger sample size. Throughout his career, Cooper has put up 49% more receiving yards at home than he has away.
Cooper's eclipsed 72.5 receiving yards in just 10 of 37 (27%) career road games and only twice as a Dallas Cowboy.
Even if you believe that these numbers don't mean much in a winnable matchup versus an overrated Bears secondary, which is fine, this number is objectively a shaded a little too high and will start to move in our favor.
The current over/under for Cooper at the more-mature Pinnacle market has already been bet down to 69.5 yards and I expect the Prop Builder and other offshore books will follow suit as we get closer to kickoff.
Bears RB Tarik Cohen
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