We’re back with another NBA article for tonight’s slate. We’ll be locking in on an Eastern Conference big man for our best NBA Props for Tuesday night’s games.
The Milwaukee Bucks are headed down to Florida to face the Orlando Magic — tipoff is at 7:00 ET. Load management continues to be a theme around the association this season. And, tonight is no different. The Bucks are resting Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday against Orlando tonight, which has led to some inflated lines on Milwaukee’s roster.
Brook Lopez is having a career year. His 38.3% three-point shooting and 2.4 blocks per game each mark career bests. His 6.6 rebounds per game are not too shabby either, but that mark is fairly consistent with what we’ve seen from the big man throughout his 15-year career.
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NBA Props for Tuesday (3/7)
Brook Lopez Under 8.5 Rebounds (-135 @ DraftKings)
This line is just straight-up inflated. As good as Brook Lopez has been in his age-34 campaign, he doesn’t see an increase in his rebounding rate when Giannis Antetokounmpo is inactive.
In fact, Brook even sees his rebounding rate drop from 11.5% to 10.5% when Giannis sits this season. You may be wondering how this is even possible; well, the answer is simple: Bobby Portis.
Portis loves going after boards as much as anyone (including Giannis). Lopez often seals opposing centers on box outs, allowing Giannis to go up and grab free rebounds. This doesn’t change when Portis enters the starting lineup, as is expected to be the case this evening.
Giannis’ Absence
Milwaukee’s starting center has played 12 games without the two-time MVP this season. He’s grabbed at least nine rebounds in just 3/12 games, averaging 6.3 rebounds per game.
Furthermore, Lopez didn’t hit the glass insanely hard the last time these teams squared off. He finished with just 3 rebounds in 27 minutes against Orlando last week.
This performance is directly in line with Lopez’s performance without Giannis over the last few seasons. Since 2021, he’s played 23 games without the Greek Freak, remaining under the 8.5 rebounds line in 19 of them. He averaged just 5.5 RPG in this sample, despite playing 29.8 minutes per game.
Heavy Minutes? No Problem.
Even if Lopez plays heavy minutes tonight, there are still plenty of reasons to be confident in this under. The former Brooklyn Net has played at least 32 minutes in 32 games this season. He’s grabbed 8 or fewer rebounds in 22 of these 32 contests, averaging 7.7 RPG.
Going back to 2021, Lopez remained under this rebounding line in 12 of 13 games seeing 32-plus minutes and averaging just 5.5 per game.
Since joining the Bucks, he’s played at least 32 minutes in only 11 games where Giannis was sidelined. But, this under still cashed in 8 of the 11 games. And, Lopez averaged just 6.6 boards per game.
Conclusion
Brook Lopez and the Bucks will be without their top dogs Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday tonight. But, their absences are unlikely to result in more rebounds for the defensive player of the year candidate.
Look for Bobby Portis and other guys on Milwaukee’s roster to pick up the slack for Giannis in the rebounds department this evening.
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