We’re back with another NBA article for a six-game Tuesday slate. And, we’re locked in on a player whose minutes have dwindled recently as one of our best NBA Props for Tuesday night’s games.
The Atlanta Hawks are on the first leg of a back-to-back. They’ll take on the Detroit Pistons — tipoff is at 7:30 ET. The Hawks have struggled lately, winning just four of their last ten games. However, they enter as 13-point home favorites, as Detroit is a pathetic 1-14 over their last 15 games.
Dejounte Murray is inactive tonight, but that shouldn’t have an impact on John Collins. Since Quin Snyder took over as Atlanta’s new head coach, Collins has struggled to keep a large role in the Hawks’ rotation. His unders have been money, and we’re right back on the Collins fade train tonight.
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NBA Props for Tuesday (3/21)
John Collins Under 6.5 Rebounds (-140 @ DraftKings)
John Collins doesn’t have a place as a significant contributor in the modern-day NBA. At 6-foot-9, he’s not a natural rim protector on defense, but he’s not an excellent perimeter defender either. He’s not a playmaker or ball-handler. And, he’s shooting just 26.1% from three this season (35.2% for his career), so it’s not like he’s an elite catch-and-shoot guy or a movement shooter, either.
Collins would make for an excellent role player and can still produce. However, his $25 million per year price tag isn’t justified. And, it seems like Quin Snyder and the Atlanta front office know it.
Collins has played just 25.6 minutes per game under the Hawks’ new head coach. This is a steep drop-off from the 31.0 MPG he was seeing under former HC Nate McMillan.
The Wake Forest product is yet to top the 30-minute plateau under Snyder. And, his role was trending in the wrong direction under the old regime, too. He logged just 29.4 minutes per game in his final 10 contests before Snyder’s takeover, and he averaged just 3.8 RPG during this stretch.
Collins has grabbed fewer than 6.5 rebounds in 19 of his last 20 games. In 24 games seeing fewer than 30 minutes per game, this has cashed in 17 of them (averaging 5.0 RPG). The value of this fade is just too great to pass on.
In addition to seeing less playing time, Collins has shown terrible effort on the glass lately. Here are some advanced rebounding stats over his last 15 games compared to the season as a whole:
- Contested Rebound Percentage: 23.1% last 15 games, 39.9% this season
- Rebound Chance Percentage: 49.1% last 15 games, 54.2% this season
Snyder is a massive proponent of running spread pick-and-rolls on offense. This leads to fewer offensive rebounding opportunities for Collins, who spends more time on the perimeter now. 40.2% of his field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc over his last 10 games. This is a significant increase from his 29.2% 3PA rate in the one-and-a-half seasons prior.
The 6-foot-9 forward is turning in a 3.8% offensive rebounding rate this season, which is the lowest of his career by a wide margin. Now playing in a spread offense around Trae Young, these opportunities are few and far between.
Collins is playing fewer minutes and seeing fewer rebounding opportunities as a part of the new-look Hawks. It’s incredibly unlikely he plays 30-plus minutes tonight and could see his time cut even shorter if Atlanta is up big heading into the 4th quarter. All signs point toward the under.
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