With just five games scheduled on tonight’s slate, we have our eyes on the first leg of TNT’s doubleheader. It may not be a popular pick, but there’s an under that we love as one of our favorite NBA Props for Tuesday night’s action.
The Milwaukee Bucks are hosting the Boston Celtics — tipoff is at 7:30 ET. Milwaukee has been rolling lately, entering with a 10-game winning streak. Meanwhile, Boston is the NBA’s best road team. But, they’ll have a hard time performing as such tonight.
Marcus Smart has been sidelined with an ankle injury for over three weeks. And, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have already been ruled out for tonight’s matchup. This could set the stage for a Milwaukee blowout at home, which is why there’s plenty of value in a Giannis Antetokounmpo under this evening.
Join us for the entire season to get every pick alerted to your device.
Shop NBA Player Props for FREE in our Prop Odds Comparison Tool.
NBA Props for Tuesday (2/14)
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 13.5 Rebounds (-125 @ DraftKings)
It’s never easy to fade Giannis Antetokounmpo. But, we’ve done it a couple of times already this season. And, we’ve been successful. After taking his under against Detroit a few weeks ago, it’s only right we go back to the well tonight.
Milwaukee enters as 9-point favorites tonight, which could lead to fewer minutes for Giannis in the second half. But, even if this one stays close, there’s still value to be had for Milwaukee’s superstar. He’s cashed this under in 30 of 45 games this season, including three consecutive games.
With the all-star break approaching, I’m not expecting a massive workload for number 34 in this one. Blowout or not, coach Mike Budenholzer infamously limits his stars’ minutes. So, unless this game goes overtime, Giannis won’t get run into the ground.
Blowout Potential
If this game gets out of hand, that favors our under. In blowouts, Antetokounmpo has an even stronger hit rate on this prop than his 67% hit rate for the season.
Giannis has played in 15 games where the Bucks have won by double-digits this season. He’s grabbed fewer than 13.5 rebounds in 12 of these 15 games, averaging just 11.5 rebounds per game.
Giannis also cashed this under in 19 of 27 wins by double-digits last season and 46 of 67 total games during the 2021-22 season. He enters tonight’s contest with a 70.5% hit rate on this prop, and if the Bucks pull ahead early, our chances look even greater.
Matchup
Even though Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will be sidelined, Robert Williams will still be good to go. And, Grant Williams will be active as well. Al Horford, another known “Giannis stopper” is questionable and may suit up, too. In other words, the Celtics’ front-court size is still mostly whole, so they shouldn’t give up an insane number of rebounds to Milwaukee in this one.
Giannis has squared off against the Celts seven times in the regular season over the last three years. He’s remained under this line in all seven, averaging only 9.9 RPG.
It’s unlikely he plays more than 36 minutes tonight, and he’s also cashed this under in 24 of 29 games when playing fewer than 36 minutes this season. He was also under this mark in 35 of 45 games when seeing fewer than 36 minutes of action last season, posting just 10.9 RPG.
Conclusion
Giannis Antetokounmpo will square off against a banged-up Celtics roster at home tonight. The Bucks are coming in as 9-point favorites, so it’s unlikely the 2021 Finals MVP will see anything close to 40 minutes of action. And, the Celtics have done an excellent job of keeping him off the glass in the past, too.
Enjoy playing our best NBA Props for Tuesday and Join us for the rest of the NBA season!
