- Our top NBA prop predictions for tonight come from Thursday’s six-game slate
- We’ll break down two NBA props, telling you how to play Kristaps Porzingis, and Duncan Robinson
- Overall, my NBA prop bets are 31-16 since the restart
Today’s restart slate is another big one. I’ll kick things off breaking down a Kristaps Porzingis line that looks like one of the best values on the board, as his Mavericks take on the Clippers at 6:30 ET.
Our article plays are on fire since the restart — BTP’s Allan Long swept the board yesterday, while my article plays are 5-2, including 2-1 the last time out.
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NBA Props for Tonight (8/6)
Mavs Forward/Center Kristaps Porzingis
Porzingis faces a Clippers team still without Montrezl Harrell, and Ivica Zubac has no business guarding KP outside of the paint.
Porzingis has gone 5-for-13 (38.4%) in his first two games from deep, and the one game that he didn’t go over his point total, he went 0-for-7 from three and fouled out early in the fourth with 22 points, one bucket short of his 23.5 line.
He’s averaged 30.3 points and 10.3 rebounds through three games, going for 30 twice.
Meanwhile, the Clippers are allowing the sixth-highest three-point percentage in the bubble (37.8%), and the third-most rebounds to centers on the season (16.32).
That combination gives Porzingis advantages on the inside and outside, something he needs versus the Clippers.
- Post-All-Star break, Porzingis is averaging 24.8 points in 12 games
- When Porzingis played 30-39 minutes in 2019-20, he averaged 21.3 points per game
- Porzingis has recorded 11 trips to the free-throw line in all three seeding games — the Clippers rank 11th of 22 teams with 24.7 fouls per game
In two meetings with the Clippers, he’s shot 8-for-30 (26.6%) from the field, and in his last three games in the bubble, he’s gone 29-for-64 (45.3%). From three, KP was on fire going 5-for-11 (45.4.%) in the first two games, before putting up a dud versus Sacramento (0/7).
My Pick
Porzingis Over 22.5 Points (-122 @ FanDuel, or -123 @ Prop Builder)
Up to 23.5 points is also fine.
Off a frustrating game versus the Kings, expect Porzingis to record his third game of the last four with 20 or more shot attempts with some threes sprinkled in, plus visits the free-throw line often.
Heat Forward Duncan Robinson
Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (-135 @ Pinnacle & Bet365)
Note: We’ll update this article as we see other available lines throughout the day.
Robinson had the green light versus the Celtics with Jimmy Butler out (ankle) as he put up 12 shots total, 11 from three. He connected on five of his 11 threes (45.4%) and six of his 12 total shots (50%) on the night.
In three seeding games, Robinson has made one, three, and five triples.
On the season, he’s averaging 8.3 3PA and making 3.7 (44.6%). Luckily for him, the Bucks weakness through three games has been their three-point defense, allowing an NBA-high 17.7 made three-pointers and 51.7 attempted per game in the restart.
Those numbers are far ahead of the Rockets NBA-record 44.7 attempts per game this season, and if Robinson gets 10-plus three-point attempts off, this could get ugly.
The 34.2% three-point percentage opponents are hitting versus the Bucks ranks ninth out of the 22 teams in the bubble. The Bucks have allowed 12 players to hit three triples or more in the three restart games so far and three to make four or more.
- When Robinson plays 30-39 minutes in 2019-20, he averages 4.2 made triples and 9.9 attempts (42.5%)
- When Robinson plays 20-29 minutes in 2019-20, he averages 3.0 made triples and 7.0 attempts (42.8%)
- In 2019-20, Robinson owns the second-most made three-pointers (252), sixth-most in attempts (585), and fourth-best percentage (44.6%)
Milwaukee is also allowing the third-most field goal attempts (95.0), and that’s good news overall for a Miami squad that ranks fifth in three-point attempts per game (39.0) and fifth in makes (14.0). The Heat are shooting 47% from the field (10th) in the restart, and Robinson is shooting 46.1% and 40.9% from deep.
He’s only met the Bucks three times in his two-year career and averages 6.7 points per game versus them. This will be a potential double-digit three-point attempt performance from Robinson, and with Butler remaining out, he’s going to let it fly.
