It wouldn’t a Super Bowl without some Super Bowl props, and we’re breaking down 10 of our best looks as the Eagles take on the Chiefs.
We’ll cover everything from the MVP, to penalties, to the Gatorade color, to cross-sport props.
As for bet sizing, we recommend playing these to win 0.5 units (0.5% of your bankroll).
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Super Bowl Props
Patrick Mahomes MVP (+130 @ FanDuel)
Think the Chiefs will win but want an even better price than the current Moneyline of +103? Take a stab at Mahomes MVP at a payout that is 26% better.
The Superbowl MVP isn’t a lock to be a QB, but it has been in nine of the last 13 Super Bowls. It’s effectively a QB award unless someone goes off for a couple of TDs, and even then… Plus, the Chiefs have fewer playmakers capable of an MVP performance now than they did in their last Super Bowl appearance.
If the Chiefs win, it will almost certainly be because of a heroic effort from Mahomes.
Eagles Total Sacks Over 2.5 (-140 @ DraftKings)
Philly might have the best pass rush in football, and it’s a big reason why they’re favored in this game.
They led the league in sacks per game this year (4.1), and no one else was close (the second-place team had 3.3, and the median defense had 2.3 sacks).
The reason this line is not 3.5 is because of Mahomes’ amazing ability to avoid the rush, but keep in mind he’s probably not yet back at 100% after suffering a high-ankle sprain three weeks ago.
Isiah Pacheco More Rushing Yards than Miles Sanders (+160 @ DraftKings, +152 @ FanDuel)
There are only 6 yards separating them when it comes to average projections, and Pacheco’s explosive running style gives him a lot of high-end outcomes in this game.
I’d price this closer to +135 to +140.
Devonta Smith More Receptions than AJ Brown (-118 FD)
Brown had more targets this year (159 to 149), but Smith paced the pair in receptions (103 to 95), and that’s down to Smith running more screens and short stuff, while Brown gets most of the deep shots. So while their target totals may be similar today, we like Smith’s odds of racking up easier catches.
Color or Gatordae: Orange (+300 @ DraftKings)
Color or Gatordae: Blue (+400 @ DraftKings)
Risking 0.2 units each.
I heard from a guy who heard from a guy that the Eagles are rolling with yellow Gatorade on the sideline.
That would help explain the massive steam on yellow, which opened at +350 before being pounded down to a significant +150 favorite.
But I’ll take a stab at the dogs at these odds, considering orange has the highest percentage since 2001 (22.7%), and blue has been on fire of late, hitting 50% of the time since 2015.
The Chiefs also went orange the last time they won the Super Bowl.
Player With Longest Reception: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+900 @ DraftKings)
Quez Watkins (+2800 @ DraftKings)
Tough matchup for Valdes-Scantling against an elite pass defense, but his profile as a deep threat capable of commanding 100+ Air Yards in any given game – particularly in one where several other WRs are banged up – makes him a value at +900.
As for Quez Watkins, he’s been the forgotten man lately. They do like to dial-up deep shots for him though, and they may need that surprise, over-the-top element that Watkins brings. This just “feels” like a Quez game.
Total Penalties Accepted Over 10.5 (-105 Bet365)
Carl Cheffers. The man who’s lead the league in flags thrown in two of the last three seasons. This is his third Super Bowl, and he called an above-average number of penalties in both of his two prior appearances. The man loves laundry — It’s just what he does.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Eagles both draw a ton of penalties on average, ranking 6th and 7th respectively in penalties drawn at about 5.6 per game. So even an average game for penalties gets us there, and the Cheffers factor puts it over the top.
Alexander Ovechkin More Shots (-0.5) than Juju Smith-Schuster Receptions (-130 @ Ceasers)
This can be found at Ceasers by clicking on the game, then going to Cross Sport Specials, then clicking number 84 on the list.
Current O/U lines for these two:
- Smith-Schuster: 3.5 Receptions (-110/-120)
- Ovechkin 4.5 Shots (+110/-145)
Ovechkin is averaging 4.3 shots on the year and gets a middling matchup against the Sharks.
Meanwhile, Smith-Schuster gets a brutal matchup against one of the league’s best secondaries, and may not be at 100% after getting hurt in the AFC Championship.
