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NBA Props for Tonight: Can LeBron Break the Record?

We have a six-game NBA slate on tap this evening. But, one game certainly stands out above the rest. LeBron James has a chance to make history, so we’ll focus on the King as one of our top NBA Props for tonight.

The Los Angeles Lakers are facing off against the Oklahoma City Thunder — tipoff is at 10:00 ET. All eyes will be on this matchup and potentially on LA’s next game on Thursday night as well.

LeBron is just 36 points away from breaking Kareem Abdul-Jabbar‘s all-time regular-season scoring record. Many fans and analysts think tonight could be the night that James makes history. However, I have my sights set on Thursday night, which opens value on an angle for a LeBron prop this evening.

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NBA Props for Tonight (2/7)

LeBron James Under 32.5 Points (-105 @ DraftKings)

I’m not going to lie to you. This has the potential to be one of the least fun bets in the history of basketball if it loses. There is, of course, a chance that LeBron James drops 40 points to break Kareem’s record while we’re on the wrong side of this line.

However, I view this as highly unlikely. King James is playing elite basketball in his 20th season as he continues to add to his resumé and his G.O.A.T. case. Even so, this line is 2.5 points higher than his scoring average. And, the Lakers really need to win games right now. They’re currently 3.5 games out of the Western Conference’s 6th seed and have just 28 games remaining on their schedule.

With Anthony Davis now back in the fold, I’m expecting LeBron and the Lakers to prioritize team success over the 38-year-old’s usage this evening, with the focus shifting toward LBJ’s greatness against the Bucks on Thursday.

Healthy Anthony Davis

It’s rare we see LeBron’s scoring lines exceed the 30-point mark when Davis is playing. And, now is a perfect time to take advantage of that with AD looking legitimately healthy (something we haven’t seen enough over the last three seasons).

James’ usage and scoring each see a massive drop when playing alongside the superstar big man. His 31.3% usage rate with Davis has paled in comparison to the 36.1 USG% he saw with AD on the shelf.

LeBron's stats with and without Anthony Davis this season.
LeBron’s stats with and without Anthony Davis this season.

The Akron, Ohio native has looked to set up AD and his other teammates more when the duo has played together. Going back to last season, we can observe a similar trend when AD is in and out of the lineup. Fewer drives and shot attempts, and a greater emphasis on playmaking. That’s what I expect from LeBron tonight.

LeBron's stats with and without Anthony Davis in the 2021-22 season.
LeBron’s stats with and without Anthony Davis in the 2021-22 season.

In 46 total games with Davis over the last two seasons, LeBron has scored at least 33 points just eight times. And for those wondering about the possibility of the record being broken tonight, he’s scored at least 36 points just twice in these 46 games.

James has posted just 26.3 PPG with AD since last season, which creates plenty of value on this narrative-busting under.


It’s not always wise to bet on storylines and narratives. However, everything really seems to line up when it comes to Thursday’s home game against Milwaukee.

There have already been thousands of Tweets and articles detailing the potential significance of LeBron making history against Kareem’s first team and against Giannis Antetokounmpo.

It’s not crazy to consider. LeBron clearly values the history of the NBA. And, whether or not you buy into any reports that he’ll try to break the record with Kareem’s famous skyhook, all signs point toward Thursday night as the night.


We shouldn’t expect LeBron James to jack up bad shots tonight, even with the NBA’s most coveted individual record within reach. Look for King James to play his standard, unselfish game as the Lakers look to win every game they can. This is a gigantic scoring line, and there’s no denying the value of Bron’s under tonight.

Have fun playing our top NBA Props for tonight and Join us for the rest of the NBA season!

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