Friday night’s best NBA player props hail from a nine-game slate, and our first one comes from the matchup between the Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets.
After a blazing month of February, we’re in the midst of a minor mini-skid here at Bet The Prop, and tonight we turn to one of the league’s hottest players since the All Star break to right the good ship.
Wizards SG Bradley Beal
Over 27.5 Points (-114)
Bradley Beal has been on fire since the break. Over the past six games, he’s averaging 32.2 points per game (PPG) on 21.7 shot attempts in 39.3 minutes, including a 46-point performance versus the team he faces tonight.
As you might imagine, the matchup against these same Hornets in once again mouthwatering. Versus opposing shooting guards (SG), the Hornets:
- Are ranked 27th in defensive efficiency (DEFF)
- Allow the 10th-most PPG
- Let up the fourth-highest field goal percentage (FG%)
- Allow the fourth-highest three point percentage (3P%)
They also allow the eighth-most PPG to opposing back courts.
Hornets starting SG Nicolas Batum is ranked 48th out of 88 SFs in defensive real plus-minus (DRPM), and if Kemba Walker gets assigned to Beal at all, he ranks 72nd out of 96 PGs.
Although the Hornets are a pace-down spot for the Wizards, who play at eighth-fastest clip, oddsmakers still have the total sitting at 234, so points should be easy to come by for both teams.
Beal has played in two games versus the Hornets this year. In the first game, he shot 7-19 for 19 points in 38 minutes, and in the second one, he scored 46 points on 25 shots in 42 minutes.
This is also a key game for the Wizards, as they’re only three games back of the eighth seed, so all signs points to Beal putting up another 40 minute game with 20+ shot attempts.
I would play this 27.5 number to -130.
LA Clippers SG Lou Williams
Over 21.5 points (-114)
Since the All-Star Break, Lou Williams is averaging 19.6 points per game on 16.6 shots in 29 minutes.
Tonight is a big game for the Clippers against Oklahoma City in the Western Conference playoff race, so I’m expecting Williams to play around 32 minutes and take a ton of shots in a very uptempo affair.
- On the season, versus opposing SGs, the Thunder allow the 12th-most PPG, sixth-most free throws, and rank 30th in DEFF
- Their starting SG, Terrance Ferguson, is ranked 79th out of 108 SGs in DRPM, while backup Dennis Schroder, is ranked 83rd out of 96 PGs
Oklahoma City plays at the third-fastest pace, and they’re also trending in the wrong direction since the break, giving up the third-most PPG since the break.
Williams has scored 17 points per game on .348% (8-23) shooting in 25.5 minutes in two games vs the Thunder this year. Tonight, however, I’m expecting a boost in minutes and shot attempts, giving us a good shot at this number.