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NBA Player Props for Tuesday (11/12): A Double Dip on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

We’re taking a look at two NBA player props with potential value on this big Tuesday (11/12) hoops slate.

I’m double-dipping on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s exploded onto the NBA scene in his second season after coming over from the Clippers and taken over the mantle in Oklahoma City.

In addition to a big boost in minutes early on in this season, we’ll look to take advantage of his much-improved range from the three-point line, as well.

Tuesday’s NBA player props slate is so loaded that we’ve got two NBA props article tonight — check out my cohort’s piece for more picks here.

I’m looking to build on my 1-1 card the last time out, so let’s jump right in.

NBA Player Props for Tuesday (11/12)

Thunder Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Over 1.5 3s Made (+115)


Over 28.5 Pts + Rebs + Assist (-114)

With Russell Westbrook now in Houston, Alexander has taken over as the driving force behind the Thunder. In his last two games, he’s scored an average of 27 points, 4 assists and 8 rebounds on 36 minutes per game.

These are the high-volume, high-minute numbers we like to see when betting player total overs.

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On Fire From Downton

Alexander is shooting 41% from three while averaging 4.5 attempts per game. Unlike his previous season with the Clippers, he’s in a role that allows him to handle the ball more and put up more shots.

Indiana’s defense against the three is less than spectacular, as they allow opponents to shoot 37% from the three-point line, sixth-worst.

Here are Alexander’s three-point looks on the year:

G 3P 3PA 3P%
1 3 7 0.429
2 2 4 0.5
3 1 5 0.2
4 2 6 0.333
5 0 2 0
6 3 5 0.6
7 3 5 0.6
8 0 1 0
9 0 3 0
10 4 6 0.667

I think we’re getting a discount for those two goose eggs in the last three games, but the value at +115 for a guy launching that many threes per game is too good to resist.

Increased Usage
  • Alexander’s Usage increased from 18.2% in the 2018-19 season to a current usage rate of 25.1%.
  • That increase of 7% puts him in the top 20% of usage rate increases, year over year, among all NBA players.
  • It’s a further indicator that Alexander has truly role as the No. 1 scoring option for this new-era Thunder team.


Oddsmakers have not yet adjusted to Alexander’s ability to score from three.

He’s eclipsed his Over/Under on three-pointers six of 10 games this year, making it a good spot for prop bettors to take advantage of.

His usage rating and volume of shot attempts combine to produce a versatile, workhorse type scorer, exactly the kind of over spot I’m looking to bet.

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