We’re taking a look at two NBA player props with potential value on this big Tuesday (11/12) hoops slate.
I’m double-dipping on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s exploded onto the NBA scene in his second season after coming over from the Clippers and taken over the mantle in Oklahoma City.
In addition to a big boost in minutes early on in this season, we’ll look to take advantage of his much-improved range from the three-point line, as well.
Tuesday’s NBA player props slate is so loaded that we’ve got two NBA props article tonight — check out my cohort’s piece for more picks here.
I’m looking to build on my 1-1 card the last time out, so let’s jump right in.
NBA Player Props for Tuesday (11/12)
Thunder Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Over 1.5 3s Made (+115)
&
Over 28.5 Pts + Rebs + Assist (-114)
With Russell Westbrook now in Houston, Alexander has taken over as the driving force behind the Thunder. In his last two games, he’s scored an average of 27 points, 4 assists and 8 rebounds on 36 minutes per game.
These are the high-volume, high-minute numbers we like to see when betting player total overs.
On Fire From Downton
Alexander is shooting 41% from three while averaging 4.5 attempts per game. Unlike his previous season with the Clippers, he’s in a role that allows him to handle the ball more and put up more shots.
Indiana’s defense against the three is less than spectacular, as they allow opponents to shoot 37% from the three-point line, sixth-worst.
Here are Alexander’s three-point looks on the year:
| G | 3P | 3PA | 3P% |
| 1 | 3 | 7 | 0.429 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1 | 5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.333 |
| 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 6 | 3 | 5 | 0.6 |
| 7 | 3 | 5 | 0.6 |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 | 4 | 6 | 0.667 |
I think we’re getting a discount for those two goose eggs in the last three games, but the value at +115 for a guy launching that many threes per game is too good to resist.
Increased Usage
- Alexander’s Usage increased from 18.2% in the 2018-19 season to a current usage rate of 25.1%.
- That increase of 7% puts him in the top 20% of usage rate increases, year over year, among all NBA players.
- It’s a further indicator that Alexander has truly role as the No. 1 scoring option for this new-era Thunder team.
Conclusion
Oddsmakers have not yet adjusted to Alexander’s ability to score from three.
He’s eclipsed his Over/Under on three-pointers six of 10 games this year, making it a good spot for prop bettors to take advantage of.
His usage rating and volume of shot attempts combine to produce a versatile, workhorse type scorer, exactly the kind of over spot I’m looking to bet.
