Our best MLB K Props today key in on Houston’s Zack Greinke, who faces a tough test against a contact-happy Royals lineup.
Greinke pitches to plenty of contact himself, setting up a nice spot on the under on a pitcher who’s owned the unders all year long.
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MLB K Props Today (8/23)
Zack Greinke U4.5 Ks (-150 @ FanDuel)
Note: We released this at -132 for our subscribers this morning, but still like it at this price. Join our sharp & friendly betting community and never miss the best price.
The 37-year old is hitting career-lows in strikeouts this season. He’s missing fewer bats than ever, and his 17.9% kRate ranks in the bottom-12th percentile among all pitchers.
- Against our 4.5 line, he’s gone under in 18 of his 25 starts this year (72%) with a median result of 4
- Against his closing prop line, he’s going under 76% of the time, including 12 of his last 14
- He’s averaging 3.8 Ks over that stretch, again with a median result of 4
He failed to strikeout a single batter in his last start, which happened to come against these Royals.
Royal Treatment
The Royals have been one of the worst offenses in baseball this year with a wRC+ of 88 ranking 25th.
However, one thing they do is swing away and make contact.
- The Royals are swinging at 50% of all pitches this season, the highest mark in the majors
- They swing at 61% of pitches in the strike zone, second-best
- They make contact on 82% of pitches in the strike zone, fifth-best and just behind the likes of Houston and Toronto, two of the most disciplined teams at the plate
They also rank third in Chase% (swinging at pitches outside the zone), and while that can sometimes equate to a high K%, that hasn’t been the case with KC. Despite all their shortcomings, they own the third-best kRate this year (21.7%), behind only Toronto and Houston.
That’s translated to the prop market as well, with the Royals holding 60% of the pitchers they’ve faced under their closing total, including 12 of the last 14.
Conclusion
At -150, this is just on the cusp of playable, but with one of the highest-contact pitchers facing one of the highest-contact lineups, this line still presents some value.
