- Damien Lillard props are on the docket as we give you two free NBA playoff props for Thursday (8/20)
- We’ll also look at Heat rookie Tyler Herro, who’s been on fire under the bubble
- Our NBA playoff props have been off to a hot start, 11-2 in the playoffs — join us here to get full daily slates of NBA playoff props and MLB strikeout props
Like yesterday, when our picks went 1-1, we’re finding it hard to resist some of the overs on well-fed superstars in the current high-scoring bubble environment.
Lillard certainly qualifies, and we’re licking our chops on this Points+Rebounds+Assists (PRA) total of 48.5 versus a subpar Lakers’ backcourt.
Let’s jump in.
Blazers Guard Damian Lillard
Over 46.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110 @ DraftKings)
Note: O47.5 on Prop Builder is fine too.
Lillard, the Bubble MVP, continued his hot streak into Game 1 with 34 points, five rebounds, and five assists in 43-grueling minutes versus the Lakers. What was thought to be a potentially high-scoring game with a bad Blazers defense, ended up 100-93 in favor of Portland.
With only 100 points scored, Lillard accounted for 34% of team points. Today’s point total is set at 228.5, so Game 2 should provide more offense, and Lillard could do numbers.
The Lakers backcourt struggled against Lillard and CJ McCollum, as Alex Caruso played 29 minutes, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 29, and Danny Green 24. That’s not a recipe to stop Dame right now.
- Lillard has played 39 or more minutes in every game of the bubble thus far
- He’s averaged 37.2 points, 9.1 assists, and 4.3 rebounds during that nine-game stretch
- He played more minutes than any other player in Game 1 with 43, only sitting five total the entire game
Lillard’s motivation has clearly reached a new level, and he’ll get plenty of volume in a game that should be higher scoring.
I would play this to 47.5 PRA, and at the current line, would pay up to -130.
Heat Guard Tyler Herro
Over 13.5 Points (+110 At DraftKings)
Note: O13.5 -106 at Prop Builder is also fine.
Herro has scored 15 or more points in six-straight games for the Heat and double-digits in his last eight overall. He’s played 30-plus minutes in four out of the previous six contests and has outplayed Duncan Robinson, Jae Crowder, and Kendrick Nunn, to name a few.
Erick Spoelstra played Herro 34 minutes in his first career playoff game, and he responded with 15 points on 5-of-9 from the field. That was the first time in seven games that Herro hadn’t attempted 10 or more field goals, but he did visit the free-throw line four times.
- When Herro plays 30-39 minutes in 2019-20, he’s averaging 18.2 points per game
- When Herro plays 40-49 minutes in 2019-20, he’s averaging 23.0 points per game
- Coming off the bench in 2019-20, Herro is averaging 13.4 points per game
The Heat played the Pacers in two of their final three games to end the bubble’s regular-season. Herro scored 16 and 17 points against them, and he also scored 10 and 19 versus them in two earlier meetings in the season.
The Pacers are allowing the sixth-most three-point attempts per game (37.1) and fifth-most field goal attempts (91.5). Herro has been able to take advantage, averaging 6.6 triples and 12.6 field goal attempts in five games versus the Pacers on the year.
He’s averaging 20.5 points per game over his last six and shot 53.7% from the field in that span.
This line is just a little too low for me, and I would play it to 14.5.