- Luka Doncic props are served as we give you two free NBA playoff props for Wednesday (8/19)
- We’ll also break down Jason Tatum’s Over/Under of 27.5 points as his Celtics “host” the 76ers
- Our NBA playoff props have been off to a hot start — 7-1 overall and 2-0 on free article plays, including last night’s easy win.
- Join us here to get full daily slates of NBA playoff props and MLB strikeout props
Star power is on the docket today, both on the court and in our prop ledgers, as we kick things off with a look at Luka Doncic’s Points+Rebounds+Assists (PRA) total of 48.5. Can we possibly resist the over?
Let’s jump in.
Mavericks Guard Luka Doncic
Over 48.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122 @ FanDuel & Prop Builder)
Doncic went off for 42 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists (58 PRA) in his NBA playoff debut.
He had some help when Kristaps Porzingis was ejected for a technical foul, but Doncic has scored 28 or more points in five-of-seven games in the bubble, and four over 30.
He averages a 35.2% usage rate when Porzingis is on the floor; 38.6% without him — and we’ve seen Porzingis run into foul problems in the bubble.
Doncic is carrying the team, averaging 33.4 points, 11.0 assists, and 10.4 rebounds (54.8 PRA) over seven-of-eight games, excluding his 13-minute performance versus the Suns.
- When Doncic played 30-39 minutes in 2019-20, he’s averaging 29.5 points, 9.2 assists, and 9.0 rebounds (47.7 PRA)
- When Doncic played 40-49 minutes in 2019-20, he’s averaged 33.7 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 11.3 assists (59.3 PRA)
He’s the Mavs only hope of competing with the Clippers, and for every game this series, he’s on triple-double alert.
I’d play this Doncic line down do -130, or if the line moves, would play it to 49.5.
Celtics Forward Jayson Tatum
Over 27.5 Points (-111 @ FanDuel, -114 @ Prop Builder)
Tatum led all shooters with 32 points on 10-of-21 (47.6%) from the field and 10-of-11 (90.9%) from the charity stripe.
He’s been active from beyond the arc during the bubble. After his 0-for-4 performance to open the bubble, he’s made at least two triples in seven-straight games, and four made three-pointers.
Over four games, Tatum averages 19 points versus the 76ers, but his offensive role just increased with Gordon Hayward’s injury. Tatum is already averaging a team-high 28.7% usage rate, and when Hayward is off the floor, that number jumps to 31.7%.
- When Tatum played 30-39 minutes in 2019-20, he’s averaging 22.9 points per game
- When Tatum plays on one day of rest in 2019-20, he’s averaging 25.1 points per game
Tatum had a career-high 21 points at halftime in game one, and while we can’t expect him to do that again, 21 points in three quarters are possible. The 76ers rank 13th out of 22nd in allowed field goal attempts (41.8%), makes (88.9%), and percentage (47.0%) in eight bubble games.
Tatum is a threat to again lead all scorers with Kemba Walker still getting into a rhythm, plus Hayward’s absence, and Daniel Theis being a non-factor.
I’d pay for this line down to -130, and if the line moves, would play it up to 28.5 points.
