Angels southpaw Jose Suarez is the play as we break down more of the best MLB strikeout props for Monday’s short slate.
We’re coming off a plus-money winner the last time out, so let’s jump back in while the water’s still warm.
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Best MLB Strikeout Props (8/2)
Jose Suarez Under 4.5 Ks, (-105 DraftKings)
Suarez makes his fourth start for LA after coming out of the bullpen for the first three months of the season.
He has yet to hit this number in any of those starts as his numbers slide south the more he starts. After allowing three earned runs combined over his first two starts, the Venezuelan has been lit up for eight ERs combined in his last two.
That includes including getting pounded by an impotent Rockies offense that ranks dead last in wRC+ this year.
As a reliever, he was able to rear back and throw smoke the entire time he was out there, leading to some spikes in K%, but as a starter, we’ve seen him settle in at a less-than-stellar sub-20% kRate.
His K% now ranks in the bottom-34th percentile, while this O/U is closer to a 50th-percentile line.
Take the Texans
It might surprise you to learn that the Rangers are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to betting the under on MLB strikeout props. I say surprisingly because their raw K% of 24.1% on the year is actually the 11th worst in the majors.
But those low expectations breed inflated lines, and we’ve seen Texas exceed bookmaker’s expectations a ton:
- All starting pitchers to get a line vs the Rangers are going under their closing line 64.8% of the time, second-best in MLB
- They’re even better vs lefties with a 68.6% under rate, also second-best
- 10 of the last 12 lefties to face the Rangers have gone under their closing total
Part of the reason for those numbers is their beefy ground ball rate of 46%, which is the fourth-highest in the majors this year.
Suarez hasn’t breeched 90 pitches or five strikeouts in any of his four starts and is going to have a tough time getting there today against Texas.
We’d play this down to -130.