Zion Williamson highlights our NBA Props tonight, as we take advantage of a betting market that has yet to catch up to the uber rookie.
The Pelicans' prodigy is back in action after breaking the backboard during the All-Star break, and he has the potential to break the slate tonight in a beautiful matchup.
I also love tonight's second play, as Steve Adams and the Thunder are at home against a very good Denver team. The biggest question is, are his minutes back to normal yet, or will Nerlens Noel continue to cut into his playing time?
We think the market has it wrong on Adams, and we'll tell you how to take advantage.
Buy a single-access pass above, or you’re looking for even more NBA props tonight, we release tons of nightly picks in our premium Slack chat community. Join us here to unlock it all.
We're coming off a 2-1 article card last night, so let's stay hot.
New Orleans Pelicans Forward Zion Williamson
Over 22.5 Points (-110 @ DraftKings)
Note: I would play this to 23.5 points.
Zion gets the best matchup on the board against Carmelo Anthony and his non-existent defense. The Blazers rank 30th, dead last in the NBA, in defensive scoring against the PF spot, allowing 32.9 PPG to the position over the last two weeks.
- Zion played these Blazers at home right before the All-Star break, scoring 31
- Williamson is no longer on a minutes restrictions, so he becomes much easier to trust in this spot
The Blazers and Pelicans are battling the Grizzlies for the final playoff spot in the West, so every game from here on out will be meaningful. We can expect a full allotment of minutes for Zion as well as effort from the Pelicans to win.
Williamson is averaging 25 PPG over his last five since his minutes limit has been lifted, including 31.5 PPG over his last two contests.
He also averaged a career-high 19 FGA his last game, and this is a trend I expect to continue. As Williamson plays more minutes, and his team plays more meaningful games, his attempts will continue to rise.
Portland has a terrible time stopping opposing Power Forwards:
|
Opponent |
Points |
|
Brandon Clarke |
27 |
| Zion Williamson |
31 |
|
Jae Crowder |
18 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic |
27 |
|
LaMarcus Aldridge |
20 |
| Jerami Grant |
17 |
|
Bojan Bogdanovic |
22 |
| Anthony Davis |
37 |
|
Domantas Sabonis |
27 |
Over their last nine, the Blazers have allowed over 25 PPG to starting Power Forwards alone.
Both teams need this game to continue their fight to make the playoffs, and with the Blazers being short-handed tonight, the Pelicans are 4-point favorites on the road. A close game with a high-total of 238 Points is the perfect recipe to fire away Zion.
Enjoy this number while you can; I expect Zion to average closer to 25-26 PPG the rest of the way, and his PRA number will also likely climb up to the 37-38 range as well.
