- Our two best NBA props for tonight come from Monday’s (8/10) five-game bubble slate
- We’ll break down two plays, giving you the best betting angles on Bam Adebayo and Deandre Ayton
- Overall, my NBA prop bets are 39-24 since the restart
Today’s restart slate is another big one. I’ll kick things off breaking down this Bam Adebayo line that looks like one of the best values on the board, as his Heat take on the Pacers at 8pm ET.
Our article have been strong since the restart — in total, we’re 7-4 in this space.
We’ve also got a free MLB K prop teed up for tonight — check it out here.
NBA Props for Tonight (8/7)
Heat Center Bam Adebayo
Adebayo has taken the bulk of the usage over the last three with Jimmy Butler out, but Butler’s back versus the Pacers, which bodes well for Adebyao’s rebounding rate.
He’s only grabbed five and seven boards in his last two games, but in two games with Butler, Adebayo recorded eight and nine boards versus Denver and Toronto.
In two meetings with the Pacers this season, Adebayo’s averaged 12 rebounds, totaling nine and 15 in each meeting.
- When Adebayo plays 30-39 minutes in 2019-20, he averages 10.2 rebounds per game
- Off of one day of rest in 2019-20, Adebayo is averaging 10.2 rebounds per game
The Pacers rank 25th in the league in rebounding rate, and they are still without top rebounder Domantas Sabonis in this meeting. He played in the Heat and Pacers’ previous two meetings, and Adebayo’s main competition for rebounds tonight will be Myles Turner.
Turner hasn’t grabbed double-digit rebounds in any of his last six games and had three total boards in his previous game on Saturday.
Unlock this Pick & One Other NBA Prop for Monday with a Day Pass
The Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 9.5 Rebounds (-116 @ Prop Builder & others)
I like Adebayo’s chances of grabbing boards here and focusing on being the second option in the offense behind Butler after being the primary threat without him.
Suns Center Deandre Ayton
The Pick: Over 19.5 Points (-122 @ DraftKings)
Note: Over 20.5 is fine.
Ayton will face the Oklahoma City Thunder without Steven Adams and Nerlens Noel, which pits him against Mike Muscala. This matchup could be Ayton’s best game yet in the bubble, and he’s had some stellar performances playing Robin to Devon Booker’s Batman.
In his five bubble games, he’s averaged 20.2 points and played 35 or more minutes in four of those. In the four games, he did play 35 or more minutes. he averaged 21.0 points and met the Thunder once during the 2019-20 season scoring 16 points.
Without Adams, the Thunder’s interior is awfully thin and undersized.
- When Ayton plays 30-39 minutes in 2019-20, he averages 19.2 points per game
- Off one day of rest, Ayton is averaging 19.4 points per game
Ayton’s chances of going over his 19.5 point total are something he’s done in two of five games with two finishes of 18 and 19 points. During the pre-hiatus regular-season, Ayton scored 20 points in 14-of-30 games and all together, it’s 17-of-35, and with Muscala at the center position for the Thunder, you can pencil him for 18-for-36.