Super Bowl week is a prop bettor’s paradise. We already have an edge when it comes to straight player prop lines, and the biggest betting week of the year presents a plethora of profitable opportunities.
We already locked in one cross-sport prop, pitting Rob Gronkowski against the winner of this week’s Waste Management Open PGA event, so let’s sneak in one more before kickoff.
What Will be Higher?
Kyrie Irving Points vs Oklahoma City on Feb 3 (-120)
Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards in the Super Bowl (-120)
The pick: Irving points
Irving has missed the last two games with injury, which may explain the odds on this one. However, he was removed from the injury report on Thursday and is expected to be back in the lineup on Sunday against the Thunder.
Based on recent form, the low end of his potential range of outcomes is about 22 points, which is right around the median projection for Burkhead’s rushing yards.
- Irving has put up 22 or more points in seven straight appearances, averaging 28.9 yards in that stretch
- On the season, he’s averaging 23.7 and has put up 20 or more points in 70% of his games
- Burkhead was surprisingly fed 12 carries in the championship game after tallies of 4 and 5 in his previous two.
- Since returning from injury in Week 13, he’s averaging 7 carries for 21.9 yards
He faces a Rams defense which has been better against the run in the playoffs. After surrendering the eighth-most rushing yards in the regular season, LA has bottled up Ezekiel Elliott (47 yards), Mark Ingram (31), and Alvin Kamara (15) over its last two.
Another boost in rushing usage is a possibility, especially if the Patriots can jump out to an early lead again this week. However, if it’s the close game that odds makers suggest, I expect Burkhead to be held to his usual 4-6 carries. And at a 3.3 yards-per-carry average, that gives us a solid edge by betting Irving side, even in the event of a below-average game from the Celtics’ point guard.
We’re already paying a lot of juice at -120 here, and I wouldn’t go any lower.