- Our two best NBA props for tonight come from Friday’s (8/7) six-game bubble slate
- We’ll break down two plays, giving you the best angles on Brandon Ingram, and Brandon Clarke
- Overall, my NBA prop bets are 36-20 since the restart
Today’s restart slate is another big one. I’ll kick things off breaking down this Brandon Ingram line that looks like one of the best values on the board, as his Pelicans take on the Wizards at 8pm ET.
Our article plays are on fire since the restart — in total, we’re 7-2 in this space, including 2-0 yesterday.
NBA Props for Tonight (8/7)
Pelicans Forward Brandon Ingram
Ingram has been one of the league’s hottest scorers all season, ranking 13th with 24.1 points per game (PPG). In the bubble, Ingram’s averaging 21.2, but he’s scored 23 or more in three of four.
Ingram played Thursday, scoring 24 points versus the Kings, making tonight his first back-to-back game of the bubble. In eight back-to-backs this season, he’s averaging 25.5 points in 35.4 minutes. He’s averaging 30.5 minutes over the first four seeding games and 31 or more three times. He’s played 34 or more minutes in six of eight back-to-backs this season.
- Versus Eastern Conference opponents, Ingram’s averaged 24.7 points per game in 19 games
- When Ingram plays between 30-39 minutes on the season, he’s recording 25.2 points per game
- When Ingram plays between 40-49 minutes on the season, he’s recording 25.3 points per game
Teammate Zion Williamson played 22 and 25 minutes in the last two games, and he’s only played one back-to-back in rookie season. It’s unclear how much he will play, but versus the Wizards, we could see more of him in the first half than the second. In Ingram’s one back-to-back game with Williamson, Zion scored 21 points in 35 minutes and Ingram recorded a team-high 27 in 41 minutes.
The Wizards defense allows the second-most points per game to small forwards (22.37), the second-most to shooting guards (26.33), and the 12th-most to power forwards (22.35).
Brandon Ingram Over 23.5 Points (-114 @ Prop Builder)
Note: Also available at O23.5 at Pinnacle.
No matter what position Ingram plays, he has a favorable matchup. I would play it up to 25.5 points, or play this 24.5 down to -135.
Grizzlies Forward Brandon Clarke
Over 12.5 Points (-125 @ Fan Duel)
Note: O13.5 (-101 @ Pinnacle) is also fine
In his second start of the bubble, Brandon Clarke is facing a Thunder against which he averages 20 PPG. In those two games, Clarke scored 13 points in 19 minutes and 27 points in 25 minutes.
His shot fell from everywhere as he went 13-for-19 (68.4%) in the first meeting and 5-for-6 (83.3%) in the second. Clarke played 27 minutes in his first start of the bubble without Jackson, and he only netted six points on 3-for-7 (42.9%) shooting.
However, the Grizzlies have now had one game to play together versus the Jazz, and his 20 PPG versus the Thunder is his second-highest versus any opponent.
- As a reserve, Clarke averages 12.8 points per game in 22.7 minutes over 58 games as a rookie
- When Clarke plays between 20-29 minutes on the season, he’s recording 13.1 points
- When Clarke plays between 30-39 minutes on the season, he averages 17.5 points
The Thunder allow the 10th-most PPG to centers (22.06) and are seventh-best to power forwards (21.22) this season.
In the Thunder’s last game, Steven Adams went down with a lower-body injury and didn’t look quite the same. He’s expected to play, but if his minutes are restricted at all, Clarke should continue his success versus the Thunder.
OKC is already down Dennis Schroder and now defensive forward Terrence Ferguson and center Mike Muscala are out too. Their defense is wearing thin and a young athletic forward like Clarke could get more than a few buckets versus them, and he’s already proved that, twice.