- Our favorite MLB K props from Monday’s slate (8/10) come from the 8:40 ET game as the Rockies host the D’Backs
- We’ll break down the Over/Under line of 6 Ks for LHP Robbie Ray
- In three 2020 starts, Ray is 2-1 towards the Under on strikeout props
- Our MLB strikeout props are 28-16 (64%) for +11.85 Units on the year — join us here to get full daily slates of MLB K Props
Ray has been among the worst starting pitches in baseball this year, and a rebound won’t be easy as he takes to Coors Field, baseball’s least-friendliest venue for pitchers.
Has Ray’s strikeout prop market been properly adjusted coming into start No. 4? Let’s dive in.
And check out our top NBA props for Monday here.
MLB K Props for Monday (8/10)
D’Backs LHP Robbie Ray
Under 6 Ks (-105 @ Bovada)
Note: Most shops are hanging a line of 5.5 on this prop, but this line of 6 is great value, and Prop Builder still has a playable O/U of 6. I would play that to -130, but I’m out at 5.5.
The list of Ray’s achievements through three starts is actually impressive:
- Dead last among 102 qualified pitchers in total strike percentage (53.2%)
- Dead last in first-pitch strike percentage (43.9%, a full 1.2% worse than the next-closest pitcher)
- Dead last in percentage of pitches swung at (37.2%)
- Fourth-last in 3-0 counts seen (10.6%)
He can still make batters swing and miss – his 24% kRate is 17th-best among starters – but he’s getting smashed:
- Bottom-fifth percentile in exit velocity (93.2mph)
- Bottom-fifth percentile in average distance hit (25.1 feet)
- Bottom-tenth percentile in barreled balls (5)
Ray is giving up hard contact 46.7% of the time, and the culprit appears to be a 2020 revamped delivery.
Robbie Ray: 2020 Mechanics (left) vs. 2019 Mechanics (right) pic.twitter.com/KTeKF2vDMH
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 26, 2020
Ray told reporters that he’s been working on the timing of his new windup between starts, but Colorado is not an ideal get-right spot.
Not only do pitcher strikeout rates fall at a mile above sea level, but power goes up, and that outlook is only worsened by a forecast that has wind blowing out at 8 MPH tonight.
The Rockies have the seventh-best team kRate in the league (22%) and are particularly excellent against lefties. Their .342 wOBA is the best mark on today’s slate (vs starting pitcher hand), and their .ISO of .191 vs LHP is third-best.
I do expect Ray to make some batters miss tonight and push for five or six strikeouts, but getting to seven will require a quality outing, and I’m happy to bet against that at -105 odds.
Between the venue, the Rockies’ prowess versus lefties, and Ray’s struggles, we’ve got plenty of value here.