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UFC Fight Night Picks, Plays & Best Bets (11/7)

  • Our UFC Fight Night Picks serves up this free, feature play for the Main card matchup between Xiaonon Yan and Claudia Gadehla, plus a complete breakdown of every fight on the card
  • This main card bout should deliver a high-level bout between two top 10 women at 115 pounds
  • Prelims for UFC Fight Night get underway at 7 pm ET, and the main card starts at 10 pm ET 

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UFC Fight Night Picks

Xiaonon Yan (-163) vs Claudia Gadehla  (+143)

Here are keys to victory for Yan:

  • Stay on her bike with lateral movement before & after initiating the striking exchanges to avoid Gadehla's grappling
  • Maintain the same volume, pressure, and relentless striking attack for the entire bout against Gadehla who has a poor gas tan
  • If pushed to the cage or taken down, immediately look to return the fight to space where she holds the edge

Kicking off our main card we have a meaningful and high-level women’s bout at 115 pounds between two top-10 straw weights.

Yan brings a ton of momentum into this bout, rattling off 10 pro wins in a row including a 5-0 UFC record. The Chinese fighter is a high-pressure striker who brings it for 15 minutes, averaging 6.72 significant strikes landed, while only absorbing 3.88 incoming strikes with an impressive miss rate at 63%.

The red flag for Yan is her vulnerability after shes been taken to the floor showing to be controlled for extended periods.

Enter Gadehla

She's a mainstay in the 115-pound division, with a solid 7-4 UFC record. In those 11 bouts, Gadehla has hit at least one takedown in all but 2 fights, averaging 3.13 TD landed per 15 minutes. Since moving training camps to New Jersey with Mark Henry, she's been keeping the fight on the feet including her last bout against Angela Hill where she squeaked out a decision. That recent trend makes this fight a little harder to get behind Gadehla coupled with the fact she slows down in fights, and Yan will be playing into that with her overwhelming offense.

The competitiveness of this fight is dependent on how Gadehla chooses to approach it.

  • If she thinks she's a striker, then I do believe Yan is going to win a clear decision victory
  • If Gadehla shows up in the form that pushes Joanna to her limits with takedowns, this becomes a very close fight

How to Play It

I’m going to side with Yan here edging a tight fight on the scorecards. I think that if you are able to live bet that is the best way to go with the current Yan line.

Gadehla is most likely to do well early. As mentioned, she does tend to gas, leaving the door open for Yan to rally back.

I can see Yan being at + money on the live betting line after Round 1 or close to even.

How I lined this fight: Yan -122 (55%)

The Pick

Xiaonon Yan wins by Decision +105

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