- We’ll break down one of our best Buccaneers Saints props for SNF; this free feature play takes a stand on WR Michael Thomas‘ receptions line
- Thomas had a historic season in 2019, but he’s missed much of the 2020 season for various reasons
- In his return game, Thomas will face off against the same team he played in his last game – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We haven’t much of a chance to play Michel Thomas props in 2020. Last year, he had 149 catches and 1,725 yards and won the NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award. He was the odds-on favorite to be the most productive wideout in football in 2020.
Things haven’t gone according to plan. The superstar WR hasn’t played since Week 1, missing time due to a myriad of injuries as well as a disciplinary absence in Week 5. He’s expected to make his much-awaited return to the field in Week 9 against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Buccaneers.
Here is Bet the Prop’s betting record on the year; you can join us here for full weekly slates.
- Free Article Plays: 13-8 (62%), +3.51 Units
- Week 8 Record for Subscribers: 17-5 (77%), +10.6U
- YTD Record for Subscribers: 141-90 (61%), +41U
My prop pick came through last Sunday, so let’s stay hot tonight
Saints WR Michael Thomas
Over 5.5 Receptions (-124 @ DraftKings***)
Note***: We locked this in at a price of +105 when it opened but still like it down to -135. After that, we suggest pivoting to yards instead — good up to 64.5. If you’re the kind of better who always wants every cent and yard of value, we’re the betting service for you.
We often preach that it’s sharp to bet the under, but we’ve actually played a few overs on SNF this year.
We’ll continue with that today, as linemakers seem to be over-correcting for the possibility of Thomas being limited in his return. While that’s always a possibility, Thomas is overwhelmingly likely to record at least six receptions if he’s playing at anywhere near full strength.
Thomas went over this mark in 14 of 16 games last year – and one of the two times he didn’t hit it was in Week 17 when he played just 67% of snaps (Drew Brees played only 81% of snaps in that game).
He only had three catches in Week 1 of 2020, but he also sustained an ankle injury in that game. When Thomas has been healthy – and, to be fair, that is a question entering this weekend – he has been a virtual lock to hit this number.
Basically, we’re betting on Thomas’ injury to not give him too many problems. Considering he practiced all week (albeit in a limited fashion at times), it’s reasonable to expect that his injury isn’t giving him too many problems.
He is also two months removed from his initial high ankle sprain, although he picked up a hamstring injury a couple of weeks ago too.
At +105, I’m fine taking on the risk that his situation is more serious than we know.
Conclusion
Again, this risk in this bet mostly lies in the circumstance that his ankle and hamstring injuries are worse than we know.
Sean Payton has indicated that Thomas probably won’t play all the snaps, but that’s mostly for conditioning reasons. He should play at least 75% of the snaps, but considering his 31% target share over the past two seasons, that’s enough to get him to six catches.
It’s also worth mentioning that there could be sustained winds of 20mph in this one, setting up well for Thomas, who is unstoppable from short range.
