- Welcome back for another exciting week of MMA betting where we dissect UFC 261 from every angle, every fight, including the anticipated co-main event championship match between Rose Namajunas and Zhang Weili
- This week's free play article covers an exciting middleweight fight between two finishers in Karl Roberson and his opposition Brendan Allen
- Prelims for UFC 261: Usman vs Masvidal get underway this week at 6:30 pm ET, and the main card starts at 10 pm ET on ESPN+ PPV
UFC Props and Best Bets for UFC 261
Brendan Allen (-155) vs Karl Roberson (+135)
“All in”Brendan Allen wants to close the distance getting Roberson to the floor immediately. Allen has been training with the Sanford MMA team which will eventually level up his striking game, however this is not the fight for him to test his improved striking skills.
“Baby K”Karl Roberson is a hard hitting striker with good athleticism, power, and explosion, especially early in his fights. With a kickboxing background, Roberson is a problem for nearly anybody in the world if the fight stays on the feet. However, if Roberson gets taken to the floor his advantages are neutralized.
How it PlaysFrom the opening seconds of this bout, Allen will be gunning for the takedown. That's his path to victory in this fight, and if he's successful with his takedowns he'll be very hard to beat. But will he succeed? My biggest concern betting Allen is his lack of head movement. When he presses his opponents , Allen has not displayed the best striking defense, which is why he absorbs so many strikes per minute.
The PickThe combination of coming off a loss to strikes and being in a striking based camp should help Allen tighten up his striking defense for this bout. I think early it could be sweaty, but ultimately Allen who has a better gas tank will get his hands on Karl and get the fight to the floor. After Allen establishes his top control it'll be the beginning of the end.
Prediction: Allen finishes Roberson on the ground.
Best Bet: Allen wins Inside the distance, widely available at +125 right now.
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