Every year, I promise myself I’m going to play fewer season-long NFL props and I fail miserably. While tying up a chunk of your bankroll for four months is not ideal, season-long props are just too much fun and too soft.
But there are a lot of them. We’re going to take much of the legwork out of it with these straightforward cheat sheets for every season-long prop line from BetOnline, and we started with the Ultimate RB Cheat Sheet on the weekend.
These tables should be pretty straightforward, but we’ve included some notes at the bottom of the article with more on the methodology and the source of projections.
We’ve also made these tables in a fully sortable for your perusal — you can find them following the heat-map cheat sheets below.
Editor’s Note: Our NFL player prop packages are now available in weekly & monthly options. Or buy the full season and save 30% — packages starting at just $59.95 for the full season.
- The Sammy Watkins over is the second-best bet on the board in terms of the difference between his projection and betting line. It’s not hard to see why, as he’s the No. 2 WR on the league’s most explosive offense. It’s also a hard one to play considering Watkins hasn’t hit this number in any of his past three seasons while missing an average of 4.5 games a year. I think the over is worth a small play.
- Second-year WRs breakout out at the highest rate, making the lines for both Michael Gallup and Christian Kirk awfully tempting. Both are locked in as their team’s No. 2 WR and are in great shape to hit their number if healthy.
- Speaking of second-year WRs, it will be an upset if D.J. Moore doesn’t significantly improve on his rookie numbers.
- We also explained why the JuJu Smith-Schuster line may be wildly off.
- Allen Robinson’s O/U of 800 yards looks soft — he was on pace for 928 last year in 13 games, and he’s another year removed from his ACL injury, plus he has another year under his belt in Matt Nagy’s system. Health is the lone concern.
- The Adam Theilen line looks close, but we like the under.
- I’m torn on this tiny Nelson Agholor line of 550. On one hand, the Eagles are loaded with a wealth of option and added DeSean Jackson and potential-stud WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside to an already deep offense. They have second-year TE breakout candidate Dallas Goedert to consider as well. On the other hand, Agholor is still the starter in the slot, and beat writer Jimmy Kempski expects him to be a “significant part” of the offense. I’m leaning over here despite the bearish projection.
- The Jarvis Landry line appears way off from his projections, and that makes sense considering the Browns added Odell Beckham. Landry is a beast — he’s third among all WRs in receptions since entering the league, averaging 96.2 per season – but this line is surprisingly high considering he had 81 receptions last year as the de factor No. 1 WR in Cleveland.
- Cooper Kupp should have no problem scoring at least 5 TDs, even if he misses some games. With 1.8 targets per game in the red zone, he’s the Rams preferred WR option when they enter scoring position. He beat this 5 TD line in just eight games last year, so we’ve got plenty of cushion in case of another injury.
- Emmanuel Sanders has averaged 4.25 TDs over his past four seasons, and it will be a minor miracle if he can hit 6 this year considering he’s coming off that devastating Achilles injury suffered just eight months ago.
- Tyler Boyd had 7 TDs in 14 games in his breakout season and will play a good chunk of 2018 without A.J. Green. His .50 TD rate in the red zone was fourth best among all WRs with at least 5 RZ targets last year. Sign me up for the over at 5.5.
- Michael Gallup, Over 600 Yards
- Christian Kirk, Over 700 Yards
- Allen Robinson, Over 800 Yards
- Dante Pettis, Under 750 Yards
- Jarvis Landry, Under 90.5 Receptions
- Cooper Kupp, Over 5 TDs
- Emmanuel Sanders, Under 5 TDs
- Tyler Boyd, Over 5.5 TDs
The Ultimate WR Cheat Sheet
Here is the WR cheat sheet in full with sortable columns
|Player||Prop Type||Line||Projection||Raw Difference||% Difference|
|Cooper Kupp||Rec TDs||5||7.2||2.2||44.00%|
|Sammy Watkins||Receiving Yards||650||880.1||230.1||35.40%|
|Christian Kirk||Receiving Yards||700||855.3||155.3||22.19%|
|Davante Adams||Receiving Yards||1100||1,335.00||235.00||21.36%|
|Christian Kirk||Rec TDs||4||4.8||0.8||20.00%|
|Michael Gallup||Receiving Yards||600||714.6||114.6||19.10%|
|Tyreek Hill||Receiving Yards||1100||1,305.90||205.90||18.72%|
|Sammy Watkins||Rec TDs||5||5.9||0.9||18.00%|
|Amari Cooper||Rec TDs||6.5||7.6||1.1||16.92%|
|Mike Evans||Receiving Yards||1200||1,392.70||192.70||16.06%|
|Tyler Lockett||Receiving Yards||900||1,043.10||143.10||15.90%|
|Amari Cooper||Receiving Yards||950||1,094.80||144.80||15.24%|
|Donte Moncrief||Receiving Yards||600||690||90||15.00%|
|Allen Robinson||Receiving Yards||800||919.1||119.1||14.89%|
|Mohamed Sanu||Rec TDs||3.5||4||0.5||14.29%|
|Marquise Goodwin||Rec TDs||3.5||4||0.5||14.29%|
|Dante Pettis||Rec TDs||5||5.7||0.7||14.00%|
|Marvin Jones||Rec TDs||5.5||6.2||0.7||12.73%|
|DeAndre Hopkins||Receiving Yards||1300||1,465.20||165.20||12.71%|
|Robby Anderson||Receiving Yards||775||873.1||98.1||12.66%|
|Donte Moncrief||Rec TDs||4||4.5||0.5||12.50%|
|TY Hilton||Receiving Yards||1000||1,122.50||122.50||12.25%|
|Robert Woods||Receiving Yards||950||1,064.80||114.80||12.08%|
|Robert Woods||Rec TDs||5||5.6||0.6||12.00%|
|JuJu Smith-Schuster||Receiving Yards||1250||1,398.20||148.20||11.86%|
|Jamison Crowder||Receiving Yards||600||669.7||69.7||11.62%|
|DJ Moore||Receiving Yards||800||891.3||91.3||11.41%|
|Cooper Kupp||Receiving Yards||850||946.6||96.6||11.36%|
|Tyler Lockett||Rec TDs||6.5||7.2||0.7||10.77%|
|Julio Jones||Rec TDs||7.5||8.3||0.8||10.67%|
|Dede Westbrook||Receiving Yards||725||799.8||74.8||10.32%|
|JuJu Smith-Schuster||Rec TDs||8||8.8||0.8||10.00%|
|Keenan Allen||Receiving Yards||1150||1,262.90||112.90||9.82%|
|Tyler Boyd||Receiving Yards||900||985.6||85.6||9.51%|
|Tyrell Williams||Receiving Yards||650||710.4||60.4||9.29%|
|Kenny Golladay||Receiving Yards||1000||1,089.50||89.50||8.95%|
|Odell Beckham||Rec TDs||8.5||9.2||0.7||8.24%|
|Will Fuller||Receiving Yards||750||810.8||60.8||8.11%|
|Calvin Ridley||Receiving Yards||750||809.9||59.9||7.99%|
|Paul Richardson||Receiving Yards||550||591.4||41.4||7.53%|
|Corey Davis||Rec TDs||4||4.3||0.3||7.50%|
|Sterling Shepard||Receiving Yards||800||854.5||54.5||6.81%|
|Adam Thielen||Receiving Yards||1100||1,174.60||74.60||6.78%|
|Paul Richardson||Rec TDs||3||3.2||0.2||6.67%|
|Mohamed Sanu||Receiving Yards||700||741.3||41.3||5.90%|
|Tyler Boyd||Rec TDs||5.5||5.8||0.3||5.45%|
|Dante Pettis||Receiving Yards||750||790.9||40.9||5.45%|
|Marquise Goodwin||Receiving Yards||550||578.8||28.8||5.24%|
|Julian Edelman||Receiving Yards||1050||1,104.00||54.00||5.14%|
|DeSean Jackson||Rec TDs||4||4.2||0.2||5.00%|
|Chris Godwin||Rec TDs||6||6.3||0.3||5.00%|
|Marvin Jones||Receiving Yards||800||839.9||39.9||4.99%|
|Stefon Diggs||Receiving Yards||975||1,023.40||48.40||4.96%|
|Calvin Ridley||Rec TDs||6.5||6.8||0.3||4.62%|
|Robby Anderson||Rec TDs||6.5||6.8||0.3||4.62%|
|Anthony Miller||Rec TDs||4.5||4.7||0.2||4.44%|
|Sterling Shepard||Rec TDs||4.5||4.7||0.2||4.44%|
|Courtland Sutton||Receiving Yards||700||727.3||27.3||3.90%|
|Michael Thomas||Rec TDs||8||8.3||0.3||3.75%|
|Will Fuller||Rec TDs||5.5||5.7||0.2||3.64%|
|Julio Jones||Receiving Yards||1500||1,553.60||53.60||3.57%|
|Brandin Cooks||Receiving Yards||1100||1,136.60||36.60||3.33%|
|Keenan Allen||Rec TDs||6.5||6.7||0.2||3.08%|
|Michael Thomas||Receiving Yards||1300||1,337.50||37.50||2.88%|
|DeSean Jackson||Receiving Yards||700||720.1||20.1||2.87%|
|Anthony Miller||Receiving Yards||550||563.1||13.1||2.38%|
|Emmanuel Sanders||Receiving Yards||800||818.8||18.8||2.35%|
|Courtland Sutton||Rec TDs||4.5||4.6||0.1||2.22%|
|DeVante Parker||Receiving Yards||600||611.2||11.2||1.87%|
|Allen Robinson||Rec TDs||5.5||5.6||0.1||1.82%|
|Corey Davis||Receiving Yards||800||813.6||13.6||1.70%|
|Kenny Golladay||Rec TDs||6||6.1||0.1||1.67%|
|Alshon Jeffery||Rec TDs||6.5||6.6||0.1||1.54%|
|Devin Funchess||Receiving Yards||500||507.6||7.6||1.52%|
|Kenny Stills||Receiving Yards||725||733.3||8.3||1.14%|
|Alshon Jeffery||Receiving Yards||900||908.7||8.7||0.97%|
|Adam Humphries||Rec TDs||3||3||0||0.00%|
|Dede Westbrook||Rec TDs||5||5||0||0.00%|
|DeVante Parker||Rec TDs||3||3||0||0.00%|
|Jarvis Landry||Rec TDs||5||5||0||0.00%|
|Mike Evans||Rec TDs||7.5||7.5||0||0.00%|
|Stefon Diggs||Rec TDs||7.5||7.5||0||0.00%|
|TY Hilton||Rec TDs||5.5||5.5||0||0.00%|
|Odell Beckham||Receiving Yards||1250||1,245.70||-4.30||-0.34%|
|Randall Cobb||Receiving Yards||500||498||-2||-0.40%|
|John Brown||Receiving Yards||650||646||-4||-0.62%|
|Adam Humphries||Receiving Yards||575||570.8||-4.2||-0.73%|
|Mike Williams||Receiving Yards||850||843.4||-6.6||-0.78%|
|Julian Edelman||Rec TDs||6.5||6.4||-0.1||-1.54%|
|Jarvis Landry||Receiving Yards||875||855.8||-19.2||-2.19%|
|Jamison Crowder||Rec TDs||4||3.9||-0.1||-2.50%|
|Tyreek Hill||Rush Yards||100.5||97.6||-2.9||-2.89%|
|DeAndre Hopkins||Rec TDs||10.5||10.1||-0.4||-3.81%|
|Zay Jones||Receiving Yards||550||528.5||-21.5||-3.91%|
|Curtis Samuel||Rec TDs||5||4.8||-0.2||-4.00%|
|Adam Thielen||Rec TDs||7||6.7||-0.3||-4.29%|
|John Brown||Rec TDs||4.5||4.3||-0.2||-4.44%|
|Michael Gallup||Rec TDs||4.5||4.3||-0.2||-4.44%|
|Willie Snead||Receiving Yards||550||524.5||-25.5||-4.64%|
|Marquez Valdes-Scantling||Rec TDs||4||3.8||-0.2||-5.00%|
|Devin Funchess||Rec TDs||4||3.8||-0.2||-5.00%|
|Larry Fitzgerald||Rec TDs||5.5||5.2||-0.3||-5.45%|
|Larry Fitzgerald||Receiving Yards||800||756.1||-43.9||-5.49%|
|Antonio Brown||Receiving Yards||1300||1,226.20||-73.80||-5.68%|
|Brandin Cooks||Rec TDs||6.5||6.1||-0.4||-6.15%|
|DJ Moore||Rec TDs||4.5||4.2||-0.3||-6.67%|
|Josh Docston||Rec TDs||3||2.8||-0.2||-6.67%|
|N'Keal Harry||Rec TDs||3||2.8||-0.2||-6.67%|
|Josh Docston||Receiving Yards||550||493.1||-56.9||-10.35%|
|Mike Williams||Rec TDs||8.5||7.6||-0.9||-10.59%|
|Davante Adams||Rec TDs||12||10.7||-1.3||-10.83%|
|Kenny Stills||Rec TDs||5.5||4.9||-0.6||-10.91%|
|John Ross||Rec TDs||3.5||3.1||-0.4||-11.43%|
|N'Keal Harry||Receiving Yards||450||393.9||-56.1||-12.47%|
|John Ross||Receiving Yards||350||306.1||-43.9||-12.54%|
|Emmanuel Sanders||Rec TDs||5||4.3||-0.7||-14.00%|
|Tyrell Williams||Rec TDs||4.5||3.8||-0.7||-15.56%|
|Willie Snead||Rec TDs||3||2.5||-0.5||-16.67%|
|Nelson Agholor||Receiving Yards||550||457.1||-92.9||-16.89%|
|Zay Jones||Rec TDs||5||4.1||-0.9||-18.00%|
|Randall Cobb||Rec TDs||3.5||2.7||-0.8||-22.86%|
|Nelson Agholor||Rec TDs||4.5||3||-1.5||-33.33%|
A few quick notes on the cheat sheets.
These lines are from the recently released batch of season-long props at BetOnline. We used this book because it’s among the most accessible for bettors in a variety of jurisdictions. Their lines are surprisingly soft compared to some books whose lines have been out and subject to market forces for months.
Feel free to use the table as a baseline to explore numbers at alternate books.
We compared those betting lines to the “Consensus of Five Sources” projections at Fantasy Pros, which include Mike Clay’s — generally considered the industry standard – as well as CBS Sports, numberFire, FFToday & NFL.com. We wanted to include multiple sources in the hopes of eliminating some of the noise and outliers.