The Ultimate WR Cheat Sheet For Season-Long NFL Props & Our 8 Favorite Bets

Every year, I promise myself I’m going to play fewer season-long NFL props and I fail miserably. While tying up a chunk of your bankroll for four months is not ideal, season-long props are just too much fun and too soft.

These tables should be pretty straightforward, but we’ve included some notes at the bottom of the article with more on the methodology and the source of projections.

We’ve also made these tables in a fully sortable for your perusal — you can find them following the heat-map cheat sheets below.

Be sure to check out our other cheat sheets for RB & QB.

Editor’s Note: Our NFL player prop packages are now available in weekly & monthly options. Or buy the full season and save 30% — packages starting at just $59.95 for the full season.

Receiving Yards

The Sammy Watkins over is the second-best bet on the board in terms of the difference between his projection and betting line. It’s not hard to see why, as he’s the No. 2 WR on the league’s most explosive offense. It’s also a hard one to play considering Watkins hasn’t hit this number in any of his past three seasons while missing an average of 4.5 games a year. I think the over is worth a small play.
Second-year WRs breakout out at the highest rate, making the lines for both Michael Gallup and Christian Kirk awfully tempting. Both are locked in as their team’s No. 2 WR and are in great shape to hit their number if healthy.

Speaking of second-year WRs, it will be an upset if D.J. Moore doesn’t significantly improve on his rookie numbers.
We also explained why the JuJu Smith-Schuster line may be wildly off.
Allen Robinson’s O/U of 800 yards looks soft — he was on pace for 928 last year in 13 games, and he’s another year removed from his ACL injury, plus he has another year under his belt in Matt Nagy’s system. Health is the lone concern.
The Adam Theilen line looks close, but we like the under.
I’m torn on this tiny Nelson Agholor line of 550. On one hand, the Eagles are loaded with a wealth of option and added DeSean Jackson and potential-stud WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside to an already deep offense. They have second-year TE breakout candidate Dallas Goedert to consider as well. On the other hand, Agholor is still the starter in the slot, and beat writer Jimmy Kempski expects him to be a “significant part” of the offense. I’m leaning over here despite the bearish projection.

Receptions

The Jarvis Landry line appears way off from his projections, and that makes sense considering the Browns added Odell Beckham. Landry is a beast — he’s third among all WRs in receptions since entering the league, averaging 96.2 per season – but this line is surprisingly high considering he had 81 receptions last year as the de factor No. 1 WR in Cleveland.

Receiving TDs

Cooper Kupp should have no problem scoring at least 5 TDs, even if he misses some games. With 1.8 targets per game in the red zone, he’s the Rams preferred WR option when they enter scoring position. He beat this 5 TD line in just eight games last year, so we’ve got plenty of cushion in case of another injury.

Emmanuel Sanders has averaged 4.25 TDs over his past four seasons, and it will be a minor miracle if he can hit 6 this year considering he’s coming off that devastating Achilles injury suffered just eight months ago.
Tyler Boyd had 7 TDs in 14 games in his breakout season and will play a good chunk of 2018 without A.J. Green. His .50 TD rate in the red zone was fourth best among all WRs with at least 5 RZ targets last year. Sign me up for the over at 5.5.

Official Bets

Michael Gallup, Over 600 Yards
Christian Kirk, Over 700 Yards
Allen Robinson, Over 800 Yards
Dante Pettis, Under 750 Yards
Jarvis Landry, Under 90.5 Receptions
Cooper Kupp, Over 5 TDs
Emmanuel Sanders, Under 5 TDs
Tyler Boyd, Over 5.5 TDs