The Blue Jays big trade deadline acquisition takes the spotlight as we break down this value-packed MLB pitching outs prop for Thursday’s slate.
Jose Berrios has been lights out for the Jays since coming over from the Twins, but is the market overreacting a touch? Or perhaps it’s an Angels thing. Let’s take a look.
Another W last night puts us at 79-33 (71%) for +42.25 units since the foreign-substance crackdown.
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MLB Pitching Outs Props (8/12)
Jose Berrios U18.5 Pitching Outs (-135 @ MGM)
18 is a key number on pitching outs props, as it means the starter needs to work into the 7th inning, something not often seen in today’s MLB. For reference, the average MLB starter has recorded 15.1 outs over the past two months, pitching just slightly into the 5th inning on average.
So when you see a line set above 18.5 outs, the under usually comes with a heavy dose of juice, unless you are dealing with known workhorses who frequently crack the 100-pitch mark.
Is Berrios that guy? I was surprised to see him at a playable price at this key number.
- The Twins were sometimes (but not often) letting him pitch into the 7th, as he hit this number in 7 of 20 starts (35%)
- However, the Jays have pulled him after 6.0 IP in both his starts for them, despite Berrios being in the midst of two of his best starts of the year, including one shutout
- So he gets there 32% of the time this year, but line price implies he’ll do it 50% of the time
Toronto isn’t known for letting their starters work particularly deep, either. Over the last two months, just seven of their 45 starters (15.6%) have recorded 19-plus outs.
But Aren’t the Angels A**?
The Angels haven’t been great this year, it’s true.
But while they rank 17th in K% over the past two months, those high strikeout rates can work in our favor with longer at bats.
In the past two months:
- Just 14 of the 45 starters facing LA have recorded 19+ outs (32%)
- The average result in that stretch in 16.7 outs
- They’ve been much better of late, with a 91% under rate over their past 11 and an average of 14.6 outs
Conclusion
We don’t put much stock into road/home splits for pitchers, since the samples are small and it doesn’t account for the very different characteristics of various ballparks.
However, it’s worth mentioning that Berrios’ ERA jumps from 2.88 at home to 3.68 on the road. That could be relevant in Angel Stadium, which ranks as the 4th least pitcher-friendly ballpark in MLB this year.
We’d price this line closer to -150.
