Saturday’s best MLB player prop zones in on the late game between the New York Mets (28-29) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (28-30).
After facing a pair of three-time Cy Young Award winners in Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw over his last two starts, Jacob deGrom again gets a tough matchup as he faces another Cy Young champ in Zack Greinke tonight. While that’ll make it tough for him to pick up a win in this one, we’re focused in on a strikeout line that appears a little too low.
We’re coming off a tidy 2-1 card in last night’s slate as Chris Sale cruised to an easy over. Meanwhile, our subscription plays are 7-1-1 over the last two days. Join up and get the first week for free!
Mets SP Jacob deGrom
Over 6.5 Ks (-150)
It’s pretty rare to see a strikeout line set to low on a guy who is unquestionably one of the best in the game in the K department. To be fair, he’s looked a little off of late, but according to Fantasy Labs, this is still the lowest line we’ve seen from him through 11 starts this season:
The 6.5 line is down a full 31.6% from his peak over/under number of 9.5 earlier this season. It’s a massive swing that you just don’t see often in this tight market.
deGrom managed a season-low 2 strikeouts over 107 pitches in his last start versus the Dodgers; however, LA strikes out at the fifth-lowest rate in MLB, so we’ll give him a little leeway there. He definitely wasn’t getting any favors from the umpire in that one, either.
https://twitter.com/90_mets/status/1133172416069472256
Regardless, he wasn’t the efficient pitcher we’re used to seeing in that one, but the 30-year old still has a very respectable 77:18 K-to-BB ratio on the season while ranking 19th in total strikeouts (77) and 10th in Ks/IP (1.22).
That’s down only slightly from his 1.24 Ks/IP total from 2018 – which was sixth-best in baseball – so this 6.5 line seems like a bit of a market overreaction. On the season, the reigning NL Cy Young Award Winner averaging 7 Ks per start and has eclipsed 6.5 in 7-of-11 starts.
Meanwhile, his kRate of 32.3% and his K/9 of 11.5 are over his last 20 starts more than healthy, while his contact heat map is healthily in the green over the past month.
Matchup & Misc
The Mets starter doesn’t have much history with tonight’s opponent, but he has struck out 7 Diamondback batters over 18 career plate appearances (38.9% kRate).
Arizona strikes out at the 13th-highest rate in MLB with 8.88 Ks/game, but they’ve been swinging and missing a little more of late — their 10.7 Ks per game over their last three is the fourth-worst mark in the league.
It’s by no means a dream spot for deGrom, but this bet is all about a number that is clearly a little bit off for one of the game’s best.
