Saturday’s best MLB player prop zones in on the late game between the New York Mets (28-29) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (28-30).
After facing a pair of three-time Cy Young Award winners in Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw over his last two starts, Jacob deGrom again gets a tough matchup as he faces another Cy Young champ in Zack Greinke tonight. While that’ll make it tough for him to pick up a win in this one, we’re focused in on a strikeout line that appears a little too low.
We’re coming off a tidy 2-1 card in last night’s slate as Chris Sale cruised to an easy over. Meanwhile, our subscription plays are 7-1-1 over the last two days. Join up and get the first week for free!
Mets SP Jacob deGrom
Over 6.5 Ks (-150)
It’s pretty rare to see a strikeout line set to low on a guy who is unquestionably one of the best in the game in the K department. To be fair, he’s looked a little off of late, but according to Fantasy Labs, this is still the lowest line we’ve seen from him through 11 starts this season:
The 6.5 line is down a full 31.6% from his peak over/under number of 9.5 earlier this season. It’s a massive swing that you just don’t see often in this tight market.
deGrom managed a season-low 2 strikeouts over 107 pitches in his last start versus the Dodgers; however, LA strikes out at the fifth-lowest rate in MLB, so we’ll give him a little leeway there. He definitely wasn’t getting any favors from the umpire in that one, either.
Regardless, he wasn’t the efficient pitcher we’re used to seeing in that one, but the 30-year old still has a very respectable 77:18 K-to-BB ratio on the season while ranking 19th in total strikeouts (77) and 10th in Ks/IP (1.22).
That’s down only slightly from his 1.24 Ks/IP total from 2018 – which was sixth-best in baseball – so this 6.5 line seems like a bit of a market overreaction. On the season, the reigning NL Cy Young Award Winner averaging 7 Ks per start and has eclipsed 6.5 in 7-of-11 starts.
Meanwhile, his kRate of 32.3% and his K/9 of 11.5 are over his last 20 starts more than healthy, while his contact heat map is healthily in the green over the past month.
Matchup & Misc
The Mets starter doesn’t have much history with tonight’s opponent, but he has struck out 7 Diamondback batters over 18 career plate appearances (38.9% kRate).
Arizona strikes out at the 13th-highest rate in MLB with 8.88 Ks/game, but they’ve been swinging and missing a little more of late — their 10.7 Ks per game over their last three is the fourth-worst mark in the league.
It’s by no means a dream spot for deGrom, but this bet is all about a number that is clearly a little bit off for one of the game’s best.
