NHL Shot Props for opening night are here, and we kick off the season with a great spot on Kevin Fiala as his Kings face the Golden Knights.
It appears that Fiala’s shots on goal prop is not well adjusted for what should be a bigger role on a new team, and it’s the best edge we’ve found from opening day. Let’s jump in.
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Kevin Fiala Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135 @ DraftKings)
Fiala’s lines were set mostly in the 3.5 range last year– fair, as he averaged 3.2 shots per game last season. So 2.5 appears to be a generous line.
He mostly played in the 17-18 minute range and didn’t always play on the top powerplay unit for the Wild, but he’ll be on the top powerplay unit tonight for the Kings, and a bump to 19-20 minutes is very possible.
As a member of the Minnesota Wild last year, Fiala played almost the entire season 5-on-5 with Frederick Gaudreau and Matt Boldy. Now he’ll play with Adrian Kempe and Anze Kopitar, which is a considerable upgrade.
Fiala is an elite finisher in front of the net and generates the majority of his shots there.
Tonight’s opponent is nothing special in front of the net defensively — Vegas is much better at defending shots from the point.
From the graphs, you can see that Fiala had the highest impact on Expected Goal (xG) rates.
Kings expected xG looks good tonight as well, especially in front of the net.
Conclusion
Fiala hit this number in 67% of his games last season and 71% of the time at home, including 2-of-3 against Vegas.
We think we’re getting an early-season discount on Fiala here and want to take advantage while it lasts.
