We’ve got NHL shot props for tonight, breaking down a profitable angle on Toronto’s Ondrej Kase as the Leafs visit Columbus.
Kase was hit with a demotion in recent week, and that doesn’t appear to be reflected in his shot prop for tonight. Let’s dive into some of the numbers.
If you want all our NHL shot prop picks, plus NBA, PGA, & more — join us here.
Join the sharpest and friendliest prop betting community above
NHL Shot Props for Tonight (2/22)
Ondrej Case Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130 @ FanDuel)
Kase is a role player who plays better when on a top-line, but he’s been relegated to 3rd line over the past nine games.
- The Leafs are on a back-to-back tonight on the road, and on the season, Kase is 12/19 (63%) to the under on this line in road games
- In the last nine games playing with Ilya Mikheyev and David Kampf, he’s been under this line six times (67%)
- As seen below, his offensive zone starts have plummeted while playing with Kampf/Mikheyev and smoothed 5v5 goals-for are going down while 5v5 goals-against are going up
Viz courtesy hockeyviz.com
- The potential risk is the Leafs lost to the Habs yesterday 5-2, and lineup shake-up could occur, but again he’s still under this line on the road enough for this to have value
- The Jackets are a terrible team and give up the most shots, but he’s gone under this line 4-1 against other teams who are top-six in shots against teams, such as the Sabres, Flyers, Habs, Senators, while going over against the Coyotes
Conclusion
This is a high number for a guy playing on the third line, and not playing particularly well. We’d play it down to -140.
