NFL Player Prop for Sunday (TB @ BUF)
Analysis
Another Thursday night game with a low total presents another great spot for a player prop under. Dalton Kincaid is having a nice start to his rookie season, and now has an opportunity to step up in Dawson Knox’s absence. In spite of that, I think his longest reception line has been set too high, currently at 16.5 yards. This one requires very little analysis, so I’ll keep it short…
- Kincaid has gone under the 16.5-yard mark in all six games, showcasing a consistent trend in his performances.
- There’s a potential concern about Josh Allen’s recent shoulder problem, possibly impacting his ability to throw deep passes in the past few weeks. For example, Gabe Davis, who failed to surpass his Longest Reception prop in the last two weeks, had previously gone over seven weeks in a row.
Conclusion
Thursday night games trend under, Josh Allen’s shoulder may be hampering his deep-throw potential, and Kincaid has yet to beat this number yet. Let’s make him prove it.
Dalton Kincaid Under 16.5 Longest Reception (-125 DK, -129 CZ)
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