Every year, I promise myself I’m going to play fewer season-long NFL props and I fail miserably. While tying up a chunk of your bankroll for four months is not ideal, season-long props are just too much fun and too soft.
But there are a lot of them. We’re going to take much of the legwork out of it with these straightforward cheat sheets for every season-long prop line. These tables should be pretty straightforward, but we’ve included some notes at the bottom of the article with more on the methodology and the source of projections.
We’ve also made these tables in a fully sortable for your perusal — you can find them following the heat-map cheat sheets below.
Let’s jump in with a look at RBs broken down by prop type. Note that these lines are from Friday, August 30th and are obviously subject to change.
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- Sony Michel’s rushing line looks like the best over bet on the board — his consensus projection is 25.4% greater than the O/U line of 850 rushing yards.
- Books are bearish on Kerryon Johnson with 850 yards compared to other books who have it over 1,000 — this could present a strong middling opportunity for bettors with adequate outs.
- Much the same story with Marlon Mack — his line is inflated to more 1,000 yards at some books, giving you a middling opportunity at this 900 number.
- We booked Nick Chubb at O999.5 yards back in June, and I’m surprised the number hasn’t moved — here’s why we think it should.
- I’m out on the unreliable Derrick Henry at that 1,000 number, but if you’re a believer, you have the support of projections experts.
- Dalvin Cook Over 950 yards looks solid, and we already have his TD line locked in as an official bet.
- Bookmakers are shorting Derrius Guice, leading to a potentially profitable opportunity for both he and Adrian Peterson, whose projection of 492.2 yards gives him by far the best looking under. The talented Guice will get every opportunity to lead that backfield over the 34-year-old Peterson. I like correlating the Guice over with the Peterson under but prefer the latter.
- Gurley’s under on 475 receiving yards stands out, but anyone who says they know what kind of volume he’ll see this year is lying. There are better spots.
- We loved the under on the Le’Veon Bell receiving yards prop when it was set at 600 yards at this same book earlier this year. That was an awful line which we beat by 20.8%, and now it’s too close to call at 475 yards.
- Unders on in-game RB receiving yards props have hit at an insane 60.7% rate over the past two years, so it’s likely you could blind bet all the unders here and show a profit.
- The RB receptions props show the least value among the five prop types based on these projections.
- However, this prop type does hit the over about 4% more often than the receiving yardage props at the in-game level, and David Johnson’s line of 55.5 is worth a look if you think Arizona is really bringing the Air Raid attack to the NFL.
Total Rushing & Receiving TDs
- Kerryon Johnson’s 27.1% overlay is the best among all the RB props. I’m a huge fan and lean towards the over on 7 TDs, but I don’t trust the Lions coaching staff to hand him the heavy load he deserves.
- We took the over on Dalvin Cook’s TD total of 7.5, but that was based heavily on a significant scheme change Minnesota which isn’t being weighted enough here; I’d be leaning under on the majority of these.
- Like his rushing line, Peterson’s TD total looks too high. Feel free to blast that under.
- Same goes for LeSean McCoy, who only had 3 total TDs last year and now heads into the dreaded age-31 season for RBs. UPDATE: McCoy was cut by the Bills Saturday morning, and this prop may not be available for long.
- Adrian Peterson Under 700 Rushing Yards (-125)
- Adrian Peterson Under 5.5 Total Tds (-115)
- Jordan Howard Under 750 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Dalvin Cook Over 7.5 Total TDs (-115)
- Dalvin Cook Over 950 Rushing Yards (-145)
- LeSean McCoy Under 5 Total TDs (-115)
The Ultimate RB Prop Cheat Sheet
Here is the RB cheat sheet in full.
|Player||Prop Type||Line||Projection||Raw Difference||% Difference|
|Aaron Jones||Rush & Rec TDs||8||9.6||1.6||20.00%|
|Aaron Jones||Rush Yards||850||929.6||79.6||9.36%|
|David Montgomery||Rush & Rec TDs||7||7.9||0.9||12.86%|
|David Montgomery||Rush Yards||825||884.4||59.4||7.20%|
|Tarik Cohen||Rush & Rec TDs||5||4.9||-0.1||-2.00%|
|Tarik Cohen||Rush & Rec Yards||850||875.2||25.2||2.96%|
|Adrian Peterson||Rush & Rec TDs||5.5||3.3||-2.2||-40.00%|
|Adrian Peterson||Rush Yards||700||492.2||-207.8||-29.69%|
|Alvin Kamara||Receiving Yards||750||749.9||-0.1||-0.01%|
|Alvin Kamara||Rush Yards||850||899.2||49.2||5.79%|
|Chris Carson||Rush & Rec TDs||8||8.2||0.2||2.50%|
|Chris Carson||Rush Yards||1000||1,133.90||133.90||13.39%|
|Christian McCaffrey||Receiving Yards||775||821.3||46.3||5.97%|
|Christian McCaffrey||Rush Yards||1050||1,040.60||-9.40||-0.90%|
|Dalvin Cook||Rush & Rec TDs||7.5||8.7||1.2||16.00%|
|Dalvin Cook||Rush Yards||950||1,085.70||135.70||14.28%|
|Derrius Guice||Rush & Rec TDs||5.5||6.3||0.8||14.55%|
|Damien Williams||Rush Yards||825||803.6||-21.4||-2.59%|
|David Johnson||Receiving Yards||500||571.3||71.3||14.26%|
|David Johnson||Rush Yards||950||992.7||42.7||4.49%|
|David Johnson||Rush & Rec TDs||12.5||10.6||-1.9||-15.20%|
|Derrick Henry||Rush Yards||1000||1,180.20||180.20||18.02%|
|Derrick Henry||Rush & Rec TDs||10.5||10.3||-0.2||-1.90%|
|Derrius Guice||Rush Yards||700||757.2||57.2||8.17%|
|Todd Gurley||Rush Yards||1000||981.1||-18.9||-1.89%|
|Devonta Freeman||Rush Yards||850||885||35||4.12%|
|Devonta Freeman||Rush & Rec TDs||7.5||8.9||1.4||18.67%|
|Ezekiel Elliott||Rush Yards||1250||1,239.10||-10.90||-0.87%|
|Ezekiel Elliott||Rush & Rec TDs||11||11.2||0.2||1.82%|
|Frank Gore||Rush Yards||400||373.6||-26.4||-6.60%|
|Frank Gore||Rush & Rec TDs||3.5||2.1||-1.4||-40.00%|
|James Conner||Rush & Rec TDs||12||11.3||-0.7||-5.83%|
|James Conner||Rush Yards||1000||1,044.60||44.60||4.46%|
|James White||Receiving TDs||4.5||4.3||-0.2||-4.44%|
|James White||Receiving Yards||650||629.4||-20.6||-3.17%|
|Joe Mixon||Rush & Rec TDs||9||9.8||0.8||8.89%|
|Joe Mixon||Rush Yards||1000||1,152.00||152.00||15.20%|
|Jordan Howard||Rush & Rec TDs||7.5||7.5||0||0.00%|
|Jordan Howard||Rush Yards||750||657||-93||-12.40%|
|Josh Jacobs||Rush & Rec TDs||6.5||8||1.5||23.08%|
|Josh Jacobs||Rush Yards||800||941.1||141.1||17.64%|
|Kalen Ballage||Rush & Rec TDs||3.5||3.5||0||0.00%|
|Kalen Ballage||Rush Yards||500||589.7||89.7||17.94%|
|Kenyan Drake||Rush & Rec TDs||6||6.9||0.9||15.00%|
|Kenyan Drake||Rush Yards||600||640.9||40.9||6.82%|
|Kerryon Johnson||Rush & Rec TDs||7||8.9||1.9||27.14%|
|Kerryon Johnson||Rush Yards||850||1,059.90||209.90||24.69%|
|Le'Veon Bell||Receiving Yards||475||503.3||28.3||5.96%|
|Le'Veon Bell||Rush & Rec TDs||9||10||1||11.11%|
|Le'Veon Bell||Rush Yards||1000||1,070.10||70.10||7.01%|
|Leonard Fournette||Rush & Rec TDs||9.5||9.1||-0.4||-4.21%|
|Leonard Fournette||Rush Yards||950||946||-4||-0.42%|
|LeSean McCoy||Rush & Rec TDs||5||4.3||-0.7||-14.00%|
|LeSean McCoy||Rush Yards||600||621.3||21.3||3.55%|
|Mark Ingram||Rush & Rec TDs||6.5||7.4||0.9||13.85%|
|Mark Ingram||Rush Yards||850||911.6||61.6||7.25%|
|Marlon Mack||Rush & Rec TDs||7.5||7.3||-0.2||-2.67%|
|Marlon Mack||Rush Yards||900||1,060.20||160.20||17.80%|
|Matt Breida||Rush & Rec TDs||4||4.3||0.3||7.50%|
|Matt Breida||Rush Yards||500||524.3||24.3||4.86%|
|Nick Chubb||Rush & Rec TDs||9||10.7||1.7||18.89%|
|Nick Chubb||Rush Yards||1000||1,186.90||186.90||18.69%|
|Peyon Barber||Rush & Rec TDs||6.5||5.3||-1.2||-18.46%|
|Peyon Barber||Rush Yards||700||749.4||49.4||7.06%|
|Phillip Lindsay||Rush & Rec TDs||6||7.2||1.2||20.00%|
|Phillip Lindsay||Rush Yards||800||861.8||61.8||7.72%|
|Saquon Barkley||Rush & Rec TDs||12.5||12.9||0.4||3.20%|
|Saquon Barkley||Rush Yards||1250||1,254.20||4.20||0.34%|
|Saquon Barkley||Receiving Yards||650||700.3||50.3||7.74%|
|Sony Michel||Rush & Rec TDs||8.5||9.6||1.1||12.94%|
|Sony Michel||Rush Yards||850||1,065.90||215.90||25.40%|
|Tevin Coleman||Rush & Rec TDs||8||6.2||-1.8||-22.50%|
|Tevin Coleman||Rush Yards||700||758||58||8.29%|
|Todd Gurley||Receiving Yards||475||403.1||-71.9||-15.14%|
|Todd Gurley||Rush & Rec TDs||12||12||0||0.00%|