Introduction
In this NCAA basketball player prop analysis, we delve into the performance of Julian Reese from the Maryland Terrapins. Reese has been a dominant force this season, but we’ll explore why fading him in this particular matchup makes sense.
Player Prop
- Bet: Julian Reese (Maryland) under 8.5 rebounds
- Odds: -105 (Draftkings, MGM)
- Recommended Max Odds: Good to -115 (Caesers)
Reasons to Consider the Under
Home vs. Away Splits:
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- Reese’s rebounding varies significantly this season based on playing at home or on the road
- At home, he averages an impressive 11.1 rebounds per game.
- On the road, as he is in this game, his average drops to 7.3 rebounds.
Tough Matchup with Wisconsin:
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- Wisconsin is a top-10 team in rebounding, both defensively and offensively.
- When Reese faced them earlier this season, he managed only 7 rebounds in 36 minutes.
Foul Trouble Risk:
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- Reese is no stranger to limited minutes due to to foul trouble.
- Wisconsin excels at drawing fouls (top 20 in the country).
Minor Ankle Injury:
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- Reese recently dealt with a minor ankle injury.
- He was held out of the Penn State game last weekend.
Minutes Management:
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- Reese played 28 minutes last game, significantly below his usual 36 minutes.
- Back-to-back games could further reduce his playing time.
Conclusion
While Julian Reese has been outstanding this season, the combination of road splits, a tough matchup, foul risk, injury concerns, and potential minutes management makes the under 8.5 rebounds an intriguing bet.
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