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NFL Props for Sunday (10/1)
In this article, we’re diving into two intriguing NFL player props. One from PropsFromPrime backing superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and one from Cody Byre fading running back, Jerick McKinnon. These props present compelling opportunities for smart betting. Let’s break down the numbers and analyze the angles for each player’s prop.
Patrick Mahomes (KC) Over 24.5 Completions (-106 @ FD, -110 @ MGM)
The Kansas City Chiefs have a dominant presence on the field, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a significant part of their success. This prop focuses on Mahomes’ ability to complete over 24.5 passes in the game.
One key factor to consider is the New York Jets’ current quarterback situation. With the Jets still starting Zach Wilson, the Chiefs are expected to dominate time of possession, as the Jets may struggle to sustain drives. This bodes well for Mahomes’ passing opportunities.
Additionally, the Chiefs boast a strong defense, ranking 5th in Expected Points Added (EPA) and 4th in success rate. This defensive strength can lead to increased offensive possessions for Mahomes.
When assessing the Jets’ defense, it’s evident that they are susceptible to passing attacks. Quarterbacks facing the Jets have had success, including notable performances by Allen, Dak Prescott, and Mac Jones. The Jets rank 25th in Dropback success rate, indicating their vulnerability to allowing completions.
Mahomes’ recent performance includes 21 completions against DET, 29 against JAX, and 24 against CHI. In the CHI game, Mahomes played only 73% of snaps due to a significant blowout.
Considering Mahomes’ history, where he was over this line in 10 out of 17 games last year, there’s a strong case for him to exceed 24.5 completions in this matchup.
All in all, the Jets’ defense is respectable but beatable when it comes to allowing easy completions. With the Chiefs poised to control the game’s tempo, this prop offers favorable odds, especially with all of Kansas City’s offensive weapons available.
Jerick McKinnon (KC) Under 10.5 Rush Yards (-130 @ Pointsbet)
Jerick McKinnon, the running back for the Kansas City Chiefs, has had limited rushing opportunities this season. With 0, 1, and 2 carries in recent games, it’s evident that he hasn’t been a focal point in the Chiefs’ ground game.
In addition to the low carry count, McKinnon has seen snap counts of 20, 21, and 20 in these games. This limited playing time has a huge impact on his potential rushing yardage.
Analyzing McKinnon’s performance with 25 or fewer snaps and two carries or less, he hasn’t surpassed the 10.5 rushing yards line even once, dating back to last season.
This prop presents an attractive opportunity to bet on McKinnon’s rushing yards staying under 10.5, especially considering his recent usage and history.
Patrick Mahomes’ ability to exceed 24.5 completions is backed by the Chiefs’ offensive strength and the Jets’ defensive vulnerabilities. On the other hand, Jerick McKinnon’s prop for under 10.5 rushing yards aligns with his limited rushing opportunities and historical performance. He could very well go without a single carry tonight.
We’re always on the lookout for smart bets, and these props present favorable odds and angles to consider. Enjoy the excitement of Sunday NFL action and Join us to stay updated with our NFL picks throughout the season!