NFL Prop for Monday Night: Darren Waller Prop Analysis

For this player prop, we’re focusing on Darren Waller of the New York Giants and his receptions prop. Let’s dive into the analysis and why this prop is worth considering.

Favorable Matchup

Waller may officially be listed as a tight end, but his role in the Giants’ offense mirrors that of a wide receiver. In this matchup, he’s in an ideal spot to shine.

The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a pass funnel this season, allowing the second-most pass attempts and the second-most completions in the league. They have been stingy against the run, giving up only 2.71 yards per carry to running backs, which ranks second-lowest in the NFL. Advanced statistics further emphasize their pass-funnel status, with Seattle ranking 30th in Dropback Success rate and 29th in EPA, but 5th in rush success rate. It’s worth noting that the Giants are once again without Saquon Barkley.

Seattle’s defensive scheme leans heavily on zone coverage. In a small sample this season, Waller has seen a 24% target rate per route run against zone coverage, ranking just below Paris Campbell, whose routes were limited to 39% last week.

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Recent Performances

Waller has faced two tough matchups against Dallas and San Francisco, resulting in 5 targets and 3 receptions in one game and 7 targets with 3 receptions in the other. However, in a more favorable matchup against Arizona, he hauled in 6 receptions on 8 targets.

It’s essential to remember that when healthy, Waller is the Giants’ top receiving weapon. All the preseason hype about his role wasn’t unfounded. With a reception line set at 4.5 and offering plus money, it appears undervalued.

Final Thoughts

The Giants’ offense tends to perform well against weaker defenses but struggles against tougher opponents. In this matchup, a strong showing is expected. They excel in quick throws, which makes the receptions prop an appealing choice. However, if you’re feeling more ambitious or need an alternative, consider the over 49.5 receiving yards as well.