Our Thursday Night Football props come from an ugly division rivalry game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans.
Expect very little offensive production — the total for the game is currently sitting at 39 at most books since there should be a slow pace, lots of running, and plenty of defense.
However, we’re shying away from the running game and are going to focus in on a receiving prop that I think has great value at current the odds.
You can also check out a few of our favorite head-to-head props for Week 3 here.
We’re coming off another winning week with a 15-7 (68%) record. Year to date, we’re 30-16 (65%), helping our subscribers to profit 10.99 units through two weeks. Join us and get in on the fun, starting at just a few bucks a week.
Most Receiving Yards
Jaguars WR D.J. Chark (+250 @ Pointsbet)
PointsBet in New Jersey, a favorite regulated book of ours which also provides a selection of fantasy props, is offering up this four-way choice on who will lead TNF in receiving yards.
Chark entered the 2019 season as a question mark after an unproductive rookie year with 164 receiving yards. Coming out of college, he was extremely raw and faced a relatively deep depth chart in Jacksonville.
However, through the first two weeks of his sophomore season, Chark’s been thrust into a big role and has taken advantage, leading the team in targets (13), catches (11), and receiving yards (201).
His counterpart Chris Conley – second on the team in targets, catches, and yards – is going into this game with a hip injury on only a few days rest, which could potentially lead to more targets for Chark.
Head to Head Matchups
Albeit in a small sample size of two games, Chark has held his own against these cohorts and would’ve won this bet fairly easily over the past two weeks.
- Week 1: D.J. Chark 146 yards; Delanie Walker 55 yards; Dede Westbrook 30 yards; Corey Davis 0 yards
- Week 2: D.J. Chark 55 yards; Delanie Walker 39 yards; Corey Davis 38 yards; Dede Westbrook 3 yards
- Season Totals: D.J Chark 201 yards; Delanie Walker 94 yards; Corey Davis 38 yards; Dede Westbrook 33 yards
On the year, Chark’s yards are more than double that of the next player in the group and more than all of them combined.
Who’s Covering Who?
He’s in good shape to three-peat this week with the best matchup of the bunch, facing off against Malcolm Butler or Adoree Jackson on the outside. Butler is ranked 71st out of 103 qualifying CBs per PFF and Jackson is ranked 38th.
Walker draws a tough matchup vs the Jaguars who allowed the seventh-fewest yards to opposing TEs in 2018. Walker does lead the Titans in targets with 12 but as a team, Tennessee ranks second-last in the NFL in pass attempts per game.
Westbrook also draws a tough matchup vs Logan Ryan in the slot — he has the 14th-best PFF grade among all CBs this season. Westbrook plays purely underneath. His a 5.0 average depth of target means he’s going to need a lot of catches to put up some big yards.
Davis also draws an extremely tough matchup on the outside vs A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey. In four career games vs Jacksonville (most recent game first), Davis has
- 2 catches for 21 yards
- 2 catches for 34 yards
- 0 catches for 0 yards,
- 1 catch for 4 yards for a career total of five catches for 59 yards in four games
With a combination of opportunity, matchup, and counting numbers in our favor, there is way too much value on Chark at +250 here.
I was able to grab this number earlier at +310 which to me, is egregious. +250 implies that Chark has a 28.6% chance to lead this group in receiving yards, and I think this should be closer to a 40% chance or a +150 line.