NFL Player Prop for Monday (10/23)
For this player prop, we’re focusing on K.J. Osborn of the Minnesota Vikings and his Longest Reception prop. Let’s dive into the analysis and why this prop is worth considering.
Favorable Trends
The Minnesota Vikings are set to face the San Francisco 49ers, and all signs point to a promising opportunity for Osborn. His longest reception line is set at 17.5 yards, and several factors suggest he’s positioned for success.
- San Francisco has allowed 12 different receivers to surpass the 17.5-yard mark this season, indicating their vulnerability in defending medium and long passes.
- Even with Justin Jefferson in the lineup for most of the season, Osborn has cleared this line in 5 out of 6 games.
- Osborn’s target volume is also promising. He received 9 targets in the game where Jefferson got injured and 5 targets last week. In games where Osborn has seen 5 or more targets, he has exceeded the 17.5-yard threshold 76% of the time.
High Win Rates
Here are some angles that are likely to play out tonight, and Osborn’s historic rate of catching a pass longer than 17.5 yards in those situations:
- Vikings lose the game (56% over)
- Vikings are behind at halftime (65% over)
- Vikings lose and Osborn has 4+ targets (80% over)
- Vikings are behind at halftime and Osborn has 4+ targets (83% over)
Conclusion
With several favorable trends aligning in Osborn’s favor, this player prop offers excellent value. Even if only one of the mentioned angles materializes, this looks very +EV. If we get more than one, this becomes an extremely strong play. All four angles mentioned above are likely in this matchup. He has a higher winning percentage on this prop than either his receptions are receiving yards, and the prop is widely available at low juice.
