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NFL Prop for Sunday (10/1)
For this free play, we’re focusing on the Chicago Bears struggling QB, Justin Fields, and his pass attempts prop. Let’s break down the numbers and analyze the angles that are presenting opportunities.
Fields’ Recent Performance
The young quarterback for the Chicago Bears has shown flashes of brilliance in his early NFL career. However, when it comes to passing attempts, recent trends have caught our attention.
In his first two games, Fields exceeded the line of 28.5 pass attempts, demonstrating his potential as a passer. But in Week 3, something changed. The Bears seemed to shift their strategy, and Fields attempted only 22 passes in a game that ended in a 10-41 loss. What caught our eye even more was the significant increase in rushing attempts; the team ran the ball 26 times.
The Run Heavy Approach
While the Bears may not be at the top of the NFL rankings, they have an opportunity to shine against the struggling Denver Broncos. This game presents a chance for the Bears to adopt a run-heavy approach and exploit Denver’s weak defense.
Denver’s defensive struggles have been evident throughout the season, particularly in the previous week. They currently rank last in both Dropback and Rush Expected Points Added (EPA), indicating their defensive vulnerabilities. If the Broncos can’t stop anything, it’s likely that the Bears will capitalize on their ability to run the ball effectively.
Fields’ game log from the previous year is also worth noting. He consistently fell below the 28.5 pass attempts line in every game, which aligns with the recent shift in the Bears’ offensive style.
Fields’ Running Abilities
Fields, known for his mobility, embraced his strength in Week 3 by finishing the game with 11 rush attempts. Given his running abilities, we can expect him to continue relying on his legs, especially in a game where the Bears are expected to be competitive.
In summary, this game presents an excellent opportunity for the Bears to exploit a weak Broncos defense and employ a run-heavy strategy. We’ve seen them shift their offensive style in the past week, and if they continue along this path, it’s likely that Fields will fall below the 28.5 pass attempts line.
As sports gamblers, we’re always looking for favorable odds and smart bets. In a game where the Bears have a real chance to shine, we expect them to lean heavily on the run, making the under on Fields’ pass attempts an appealing betting option.
Justin Fields (Under 28.5 Pass Attempts -130 @ MGM)
Also okay with Under 17.5 completions for half a unit as an alternative.
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