- Our best props for TNF runs down the receiving line of O/U 19.5 yards for Cardinals RB Chase Edmonds
- He’ll split snaps with a now-healthy Kenyan Drake but is likely to maintain his share of the receiving pie in a great matchup
- The Seahawks opened as a 5.5-point favorite but are now down to 3 points in a game with a mega 56.5 total
Both of our best props for TNF so far are overs, and it’s the kind of game where taking any under makes you feel a little sick.
This projects to be a wild one with a ton of offense:
- The Seahawks and Cardinals point total of 56.5 is tied for the highest on this week’s slate
- They combine for 64.5 plays per 60 minutes in neutral scripts, fourth-most on this slate
- They average a snap every 25.6 seconds, the fastest on the slate
- Arizona runs no-huddle 38% of the time, by far the most in the league
- They combined for 71 points and 1,091 yards of offense when they met in Week 7
We can confidently lean towards a few more overs than normal, including this feature play on Edmonds.
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Our record on the season:
Best Props for TNF
Cardinals RB Chase Edmonds
Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-112 @ DraftKings)
Edmonds benefited from the defense-optional affair in their first matchup, blasting by his over en route to career-high 7 catches and 87 receiving yards.
He now ranks 11th at the position in targets (4.2/game) and sixth in yards (29/game) and has gone over this number in five of nine. Two of the times he fell short, he did so by just 0.5 and 1.5 yards.
Keep in mind that the explosion against Seattle came with Drake in the lineup, so we don’t need Drake to be sidelined to see Edmonds get targets.
The Matchup
The matchup against Seattle is a dream for QBs and WRs, but it’s still a great one for guys like Edmonds.
RBs facing the Seahawks average:
- 8.1 targets, third-most
- 6.4 receptions, fourth-most
- 47.8 yards, seventh-most
Ten different RBs have had three or more receptions, and 11 RBs have gone over this mark of 19.5 receiving yards.
A lot of it is just pure, unadulterated volume. Their opponents are averaging 44 pass plays per game and 72 total plays per game, both the highest marks in the league.
Conclusion
Even if Edmond’s role isn’t as big tonight as it was last time out vs Seattle, 44 pass plays per game allowed by Seattle is insane.
If we peg Kyler Murray for 35 pass attempts (his average), Edmond’s 13% target market share puts him at 4.6 targets. And at 6.9 yards/target, we get 31.7 yards.
That falls right in line with projections, which have him between 25 and 35 yards.
Any way you add it up, this play has a lot of outs — just what we like when betting an over.
