NFL playoff props are starting to pop, and we’re kicking off the first-ever Super Wildcard Weekend with a look at one of our favorite props from Bills Patriots on Saturday night.
Bills WR Stefon Diggs hasn’t had a monster season compared to his 1,500-yard breakout last year, but the volume is still there. We think there is plenty of value on his receiving prop to open the playoffs, and that’s where we’ll kick things off.
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Let’s jump in.
NFL Playoff Props for Bills Patriots
Stefon Diggs OVER 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110 B365/DraftKings)
Look, obviously this is a tough matchup against a good defense in a game with a relatively low total (44), one that is likely to be played in cold, possibly snowy conditions.
Still, this number is just too low for Diggs — as low a number you’ll ever see for him and one that he’s getting to more often than not.
Stefon Diggs 2021 Receiving Line Props & Results
- Diggs’ average O/U this year was 80.4 yards, 24.7% higher than our current line
- His average actual result was 72.1 yards, 13% higher than our line
- This week’s 64.5-yard O/U is the second lowest we’ve seen for him all year — the only time he got a line lower than that was in the 40mph-wind game against the Pats
In his second matchup against the Pats, he got a line of 74.5 and got there easily.
The narrative goes that Bill Belichik always shuts down the other team’s best weapon, but that hasn’t been the case for Diggs. Sure, he fell short in white-out conditions, but he’s easily hit this number in all three other games against New England since arriving in Buffalo.
In fact, the Pats have been a favorite matchup for Diggs, who’s averaging 93.3 yards in four games against them, even including the wind game, more than 10 yards more than his average against other teams.
Target Uptick?
One thing we often see in the late in the year and into the playoffs is that teams will trim their target tree as the games get more important.
The Bills have been force-feeding Diggs a little more down the stretch run this year as the games grow in importance, and they also did the same thing in the playoffs last year.
- Diggs has 12 targets/game over his last three games for a 33% target share
- That’s significantly up 9.1 targets/game and a 25% target share over the first 15 weeks
- In last year’s playoffs, they fed Diggs 10.3 targets/game, and he easily hit this number on all three occasions, averaging 104 yards
Conclusion
While there is some inclement weather expected n Buffalo, it won’t be anything like the wind game these teams played in Week 13 where Diggs fell short.
Diggs is their best skill-position player, and I expect him to be a key part of the game plan. He’s just good at the game, and all considered, this number is surprisingly short.
We’d play it up to 69.5.
