A light Monday slate with just eight evening games means a light MLB props card for us, but there is one play that stands out.
It comes from a key matchup in Cleveland, as the Red Sox (62-58) try to stay in the Wildcard race, while the Indians (71-47) have a chance to move half a game up on the idle Twins for first place in the AL Central.
We’re coming off a win on our last piece while riding the red-hot Walker Buehler. That improves our article record on the season, while our subscriber plays went 10-3 over the weekend.
- Article plays: 41-24 (63%)
- Subscriber plays: 313-217 (59%)
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Cleveland RHP Zach Plesac
Under 4.5 Ks (-127)
The 24-year-old rookie has been expectedly uneven in his first campaign in the majors, alternating quality starts with outings like a July 31st start vs Houston which saw him surrender six hits and four earned runs while striking out just three in an abbreviated 5.0-inning appearance.
Through 13 career starts, Zach Plesac owns an exceptional ERA of 3.27 and a just-as-impressive 1.17 WHIP, but he’s not doing it with the strikeout. The rookie’s kRate stands at a mediocre 18.5% and the K/9 number of 6.8 is sub-par.
The test tonight is a tough one against a Boston squad which ranks:
- 1st in hits per game (9.74)
- 2nd in runs (6.73)
- 2nd in batting average (.273)
- 4th in SLG% (.474)
The Red Sox have been particularly brutal on righties, against whom they’ve absolutely teed off to the tune of a .371 wOBA and .230 ISO.
In all, Boston has been hell on opposing pitchers over the last season’s worth of games.
Plesac and the Sox do have some history, but it was the first start of his career back in May, so his 2-K, 4-hit outing is not particularly relevant.
There are a number of other intangible factors working against Plesac in his start tonight.
- His home park of Progressive Field has been the fourth-worst venue for pitchers on the season.
- Tonight’s home plate umpire Lance Barksdale calls just 15.91 total strikeouts per 9 innings, which is 0.97% below the league average.
- Barksdale also calls an average of 6.62 walks per game, 1.06% above MLB norms.
Plesac faces an uphill battle tonight and I like his chances of getting an early hook against this lineup.
