With hoops season winding down, it’s time to turn our attention to one of the best betting markets out there — MLB strikeout props.
Rangers righty Jon Gray takes to the mound against a Tampa Bay team that has struggled versus right-handed pitching all year long. Meanwhile, Gray looks fully recovered from an injury-aided slow start to the year.
Let’s dive into some analysis.
Our MLB strikeout props are 75-54 for +15.8U to start the year — join us here to get all our plays, plus PGA, UFC, F1 & more, alerted to your device.
MLB Strikeout Props for 6/1
Jon Gray OVER 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110 @ BetMGM)
Line notes: We put this out for our subscribers at O15.5 outs but still like it at O16.5 down to -120.
Gray had a low-grade MCL sprain at the end of April that caused him to miss some time and prevented him from getting fully stretched out until recently.
Since then, he’s worked his pitch count up around 90, going over in all three of his most recent starts.
Viz courtesy props.cash
It’s a good matchup for us, as the Tampa Bay Rays have been pretty ineffective of late:
- They rank 25th in wRC+ over the last 14 and last 30 days
- They’ve allowed 12 of the last 14 RHP to face them to go over 15.5 Outs
- The Rays have the sixth-worst OPS & the third-worst OBP vs RHP this year
The list of pitchers they faced during that time is a who’s who of guys we like to fade, or guys on lowish pitch counts, so it’s not like these numbers are the result of tough matchups.
This number seems to still be overly weighting Gray’s slow start. Now that he’s fully healthy, this line looks a touch low against a team that hasn’t been hitting all that well