We’re in the dog days of the baseball schedule, and our cards for MLB props have been a little lighter than usual as we tiptoe our way through the landmines of August.
We’re not going to publish plays we don’t like, but tonight brings a sweet spot as one of the hottest pitchers in baseball takes to the rubber in a venue where he’s been simply dominant.
We’re coming off a 1-1 card in our last piece, hitting the Trent Thornton under but missing on Zack Greinke, who just didn’t have it in his Astros debut. Our records on the season:
- Article plays: 41-24 (63%)
- Subscriber plays: 302-214 (58.5%)
There’s still plenty of season left to join the K Train, and our NFL Prop Packages are now live! Save 30% with the early bird price before August 18th.
Dodgers RHP Walker Buehler
Over 7.5Ks (-114)
The Dodgers righty is coming off an insane 15-K, 5-hitter against the Padres, managing to go the distance on just 110 pitches, 80 of which were strikes.
— └A DODGERS LAKERS NEWS (@DodgersLakers) August 4, 2019
Amazingly, it wasn’t even his best strikeout performance of the season, as he fanned 16 Rockies batters in late June in another complete game. He’s now the only pitcher to have two games with at least 15 strikeouts this season.
- 17th in K/IP (1.16)
- K/game (7.24)
- T-12th in IP/game
Even those numbers may be a little deceiving. Buehler’s form has been improving all season long. After averaging 5.2 K/game through his first 10 starts, he’s averaged 9.09 K/game in 11 starts since. The kRate has crested 30% while the ERA continues to sink.
Buehler also has the advantage of pitching at Dodgers Stadium tonight, a venue which has been the fifth-most friendly for pitchers in 2019.
His home-road splits have been particularly stark — that’s where both his complete games took place and where he’s averaging 23.7% more strikeouts per nine innings while also walking batters 75% less often.
This will be the fourth time the 25-year-old stud has faced Arizona this year. The first was on opening day where Buehler got shelled (O Ks in 3.0 IP), but in his two most recent starts, he went 7.0 and 8.0 innings while striking out 11 and 9 Diamondback batters respectively.
While it’s a lineup that hits well against righties – .348 wOBA & .194 ISO – Arizona hasn’t managed very well against Buehler in his career, hitting for a .230 average and a .115 ISO, while striking out 28.6% of the time in 63 plate appearances.
Put a -190 Dodgers money-line cherry on top and we have all the ingredients for another Buehler over.
I expect this line to move and would play it as high as -130.